State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan
To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and managemen...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:4435265 2023-05-15T15:13:40+02:00 State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan Marolla, Filippo Henden, John-Andre Fuglei, Eva Pedersen, Ashild Ønvik Itkin, Mikhail Ims, Rolf Anker 2021-01-12 https://zenodo.org/record/4435265 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 unknown https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://zenodo.org/record/4435265 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 oai:zenodo.org:4435265 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode Bayesian state-space modelling Svalbard rock ptarmigan info:eu-repo/semantics/other dataset 2021 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 2023-03-10T15:45:16Z To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point-transect distance-sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: 1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and 2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved non-linearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and ... Dataset Arctic Climate change rock ptarmigan Svalbard Svalbard Rock Ptarmigan Zenodo Arctic Svalbard |
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Open Polar |
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ftzenodo |
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unknown |
topic |
Bayesian state-space modelling Svalbard rock ptarmigan |
spellingShingle |
Bayesian state-space modelling Svalbard rock ptarmigan Marolla, Filippo Henden, John-Andre Fuglei, Eva Pedersen, Ashild Ønvik Itkin, Mikhail Ims, Rolf Anker State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
topic_facet |
Bayesian state-space modelling Svalbard rock ptarmigan |
description |
To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point-transect distance-sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: 1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and 2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved non-linearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and ... |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Marolla, Filippo Henden, John-Andre Fuglei, Eva Pedersen, Ashild Ønvik Itkin, Mikhail Ims, Rolf Anker |
author_facet |
Marolla, Filippo Henden, John-Andre Fuglei, Eva Pedersen, Ashild Ønvik Itkin, Mikhail Ims, Rolf Anker |
author_sort |
Marolla, Filippo |
title |
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
title_short |
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
title_full |
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
title_fullStr |
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
title_full_unstemmed |
State-space model for Svalbard ptarmigan |
title_sort |
state-space model for svalbard ptarmigan |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/4435265 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Climate change rock ptarmigan Svalbard Svalbard Rock Ptarmigan |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change rock ptarmigan Svalbard Svalbard Rock Ptarmigan |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://zenodo.org/record/4435265 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 oai:zenodo.org:4435265 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.ngf1vhht0 |
_version_ |
1766344189829709824 |