Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf
1. Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stak...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:3968821 2024-09-09T19:29:53+00:00 Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf Maltby, Katherine Rutterford, Louise Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin Simpson, Stephen 2020-07-31 https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz unknown Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz oai:zenodo.org:3968821 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode demersal fish regional projections Celtic Sea English Channel North Sea info:eu-repo/semantics/other 2020 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz 2024-07-26T05:29:28Z 1. Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. 2. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21 st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4ºC by 2098. 3. For each species, Generalised Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. 4. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet ( Mullus surmuletus L.), Dover sole ( Solea solea L.), John dory ( Zeus faber L.) and lemon sole ( Microstomus kitt L.) and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua L.), anglerfish ( Lophius piscatorius L.) and megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L.). European plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa L.) appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. 5. Synthesis and applications . These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, ... Other/Unknown Material atlantic cod Gadus morhua Zenodo Dover ENVELOPE(-55.753,-55.753,-83.777,-83.777) Zeus ENVELOPE(140.020,140.020,-66.661,-66.661) |
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language |
unknown |
topic |
demersal fish regional projections Celtic Sea English Channel North Sea |
spellingShingle |
demersal fish regional projections Celtic Sea English Channel North Sea Maltby, Katherine Rutterford, Louise Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin Simpson, Stephen Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
topic_facet |
demersal fish regional projections Celtic Sea English Channel North Sea |
description |
1. Projecting the future effects of climate change on marine fished populations can help prepare the fishing industry and management systems for resulting ecological, social and economic changes. Generating projections using multiple climate scenarios can provide valuable insights for fisheries stakeholders regarding uncertainty arising from future climate data. 2. Using a range of climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, we modelled abundance of eight commercially important bottom dwelling fish species across the Celtic Sea, English Channel and southern North Sea through the 21 st century. This region spans a faunal boundary between cooler northern waters and warmer southern waters, where mean sea surface temperatures are projected to rise by 2 to 4ºC by 2098. 3. For each species, Generalised Additive Models were trained on spatially explicit abundance data from six surveys between 2001 and 2010. Annual and seasonal temperatures were key drivers of species abundance patterns. Models were used to project species abundance for each decade through to 2090. 4. Projections suggest important future changes in the availability and catchability of fish species, with projected increases in abundance of red mullet ( Mullus surmuletus L.), Dover sole ( Solea solea L.), John dory ( Zeus faber L.) and lemon sole ( Microstomus kitt L.) and decreases in abundance of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua L.), anglerfish ( Lophius piscatorius L.) and megrim ( Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis L.). European plaice ( Pleuronectes platessa L.) appeared less affected by projected temperature changes. Most projected abundance responses were comparable among climate projections, but uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of changes often increased substantially beyond 2040. 5. Synthesis and applications . These results indicate potential risks as well as some opportunities for demersal fisheries under climate change. These changes will challenge current management systems, ... |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Maltby, Katherine Rutterford, Louise Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin Simpson, Stephen |
author_facet |
Maltby, Katherine Rutterford, Louise Tinker, Jonathan Genner, Martin Simpson, Stephen |
author_sort |
Maltby, Katherine |
title |
Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_short |
Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_full |
Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_fullStr |
Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data from: Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf |
title_sort |
data from: projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the european continental shelf |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-55.753,-55.753,-83.777,-83.777) ENVELOPE(140.020,140.020,-66.661,-66.661) |
geographic |
Dover Zeus |
geographic_facet |
Dover Zeus |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/dryad https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz oai:zenodo.org:3968821 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.8cz8w9gmz |
_version_ |
1809898962426003456 |