The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure
Within Australia alone, more than A$226 billion of coastal infrastructure is vulnerable to the anticipated rise in sea level by the end of the century. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that the likely increase in global mean sea level during the 21st century ranges from 26-55 centimetres (...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:3890244 2023-06-06T11:47:40+02:00 The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure Phipps, Steven J. King, Matt A. Roberts, Jason L. Zhang, Xuebin 2020-06-11 https://zenodo.org/record/3890244 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3890244 unknown info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ARC/Special+Research+Initiative+%28Antarctic%29/SR140300001/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.3890243 https://zenodo.org/record/3890244 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3890244 oai:zenodo.org:3890244 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea level Ice sheet modelling Parallel Ice Sheet Model Large ensemble modelling Parameter uncertainty info:eu-repo/semantics/other dataset 2020 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.389024410.5281/zenodo.3890243 2023-04-13T22:44:15Z Within Australia alone, more than A$226 billion of coastal infrastructure is vulnerable to the anticipated rise in sea level by the end of the century. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that the likely increase in global mean sea level during the 21st century ranges from 26-55 centimetres (under the low-end RCP2.6 climate scenario) to 45-82 centimetres (under the high-end RCP8.5 climate scenario). However, these projections do not take into account the potential for collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent evidence has indicated that the IPCC projections may be under-estimates, with sea level increases of up to 2.5 metres possible by the end of the 21st century. Modelling studies have also demonstrated the potential for the Antarctic Ice Sheet to undergo irreversible collapse during the coming centuries, leading to dramatic increases in global sea level on time scales relevant to critical coastal infrastructure such as refineries and airports. The most extreme prediction is that Antarctica could contribute 15.65±2.00 metres to global sea level by the year 2500. Here, we combine climate modelling and ice sheet modelling to explore the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next 500 years under a range of climate scenarios. We run the models many times to take into account gaps in our understanding of ice sheet dynamics. This allows us to generate robust projections of the Antarctic contribution to global sea level from the present to the year 2500, complete with quantified confidence intervals. We conclude that the sea level contribution during the 21st century will be modest, consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but that melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will accelerate thereafter. By the year 2500, we predict that the Antarctic contribution to global sea level will be at least 5 metres. Dataset Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Zenodo Antarctic The Antarctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Zenodo |
op_collection_id |
ftzenodo |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea level Ice sheet modelling Parallel Ice Sheet Model Large ensemble modelling Parameter uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea level Ice sheet modelling Parallel Ice Sheet Model Large ensemble modelling Parameter uncertainty Phipps, Steven J. King, Matt A. Roberts, Jason L. Zhang, Xuebin The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
topic_facet |
Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea level Ice sheet modelling Parallel Ice Sheet Model Large ensemble modelling Parameter uncertainty |
description |
Within Australia alone, more than A$226 billion of coastal infrastructure is vulnerable to the anticipated rise in sea level by the end of the century. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that the likely increase in global mean sea level during the 21st century ranges from 26-55 centimetres (under the low-end RCP2.6 climate scenario) to 45-82 centimetres (under the high-end RCP8.5 climate scenario). However, these projections do not take into account the potential for collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent evidence has indicated that the IPCC projections may be under-estimates, with sea level increases of up to 2.5 metres possible by the end of the 21st century. Modelling studies have also demonstrated the potential for the Antarctic Ice Sheet to undergo irreversible collapse during the coming centuries, leading to dramatic increases in global sea level on time scales relevant to critical coastal infrastructure such as refineries and airports. The most extreme prediction is that Antarctica could contribute 15.65±2.00 metres to global sea level by the year 2500. Here, we combine climate modelling and ice sheet modelling to explore the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the next 500 years under a range of climate scenarios. We run the models many times to take into account gaps in our understanding of ice sheet dynamics. This allows us to generate robust projections of the Antarctic contribution to global sea level from the present to the year 2500, complete with quantified confidence intervals. We conclude that the sea level contribution during the 21st century will be modest, consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but that melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will accelerate thereafter. By the year 2500, we predict that the Antarctic contribution to global sea level will be at least 5 metres. |
format |
Dataset |
author |
Phipps, Steven J. King, Matt A. Roberts, Jason L. Zhang, Xuebin |
author_facet |
Phipps, Steven J. King, Matt A. Roberts, Jason L. Zhang, Xuebin |
author_sort |
Phipps, Steven J. |
title |
The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
title_short |
The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
title_full |
The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
title_fullStr |
The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
title_full_unstemmed |
The commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to coastal infrastructure |
title_sort |
commitment to global sea level rise over the next 500 years: exploring the threat of the antarctic ice sheet to coastal infrastructure |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/3890244 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3890244 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ARC/Special+Research+Initiative+%28Antarctic%29/SR140300001/ doi:10.5281/zenodo.3890243 https://zenodo.org/record/3890244 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3890244 oai:zenodo.org:3890244 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.389024410.5281/zenodo.3890243 |
_version_ |
1767953216939491328 |