Decadal-scale predictive skill of North Atlantic upper-ocean salt content and its attribution to the initialization of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation

• Main Authors: Katja Lohmann, Daniela Matei, Manfred Bersch, Johann Jungclaus, Holger Pohlmann, Jürgen Kröger, Kameswarrao Modali, Wolfgang Müller
• Format: Lecture
• Language: English
• Published: Zenodo 2019
• Subjects: Arctic; Nordic Seas; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3268766

Predictive skill of North Atlantic upper-ocean salinity has, in contrast to upper-ocean temperature, so far not received much attention, despite recent evidence that predictability of abundance and distribution of marine ecosystem species can be inferred from salinity predictions. Here, we use initialized decadal prediction experiments with six climate models to assess the predictive skill of North Atlantic upper-ocean salt content. Based on the multi-model ensemble mean, we demonstrate decadal-scale predictive in the entire subpolar North Atlantic and the eastern part of the Nordic Seas. Based on our own decadal prediction experiments, we attribute the skill at longer lead times to a delayed response to the initialization of the North Atlantic ocean circulation.