Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF
Historical reanalyses combine observations of past weather with simulations from modern numerical weather prediction models to provide a consistent, global history of the weather. CERA-20C is the first coupled reanalysis over the 20 th century produced by ECMWF. Atmospheric and ocean observations ar...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:3241955 2024-09-15T18:21:55+00:00 Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF Patrick Laloyaux 2019-06-09 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241955 unknown Zenodo https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241954 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241955 oai:zenodo.org:3241955 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/lecture 2019 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.324195510.5281/zenodo.3241954 2024-07-25T10:39:34Z Historical reanalyses combine observations of past weather with simulations from modern numerical weather prediction models to provide a consistent, global history of the weather. CERA-20C is the first coupled reanalysis over the 20 th century produced by ECMWF. Atmospheric and ocean observations are assimilated simultaneously, thereby providing more balanced estimates of the atmosphere-ocean system and allowing for a broader range of studies of the entire Earth system. The question of whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and associated climate anomalies over the North Atlantic-European area during winter can be predicted with any confidence is still a matter of on-going scientific debate. Long retrospective seasonal forecast experiments for all boreal winter seasons during the period 1901 to 2009 have been produced using CERA-20C for the initialisation of the coupled model. There is significant skill for early and most recent decades while there is a lack of skill mid-century. This shows that short hindcast periods are not sufficiently representative for longer-term behaviour due to decadal climate variability. Lecture North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Zenodo |
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Historical reanalyses combine observations of past weather with simulations from modern numerical weather prediction models to provide a consistent, global history of the weather. CERA-20C is the first coupled reanalysis over the 20 th century produced by ECMWF. Atmospheric and ocean observations are assimilated simultaneously, thereby providing more balanced estimates of the atmosphere-ocean system and allowing for a broader range of studies of the entire Earth system. The question of whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and associated climate anomalies over the North Atlantic-European area during winter can be predicted with any confidence is still a matter of on-going scientific debate. Long retrospective seasonal forecast experiments for all boreal winter seasons during the period 1901 to 2009 have been produced using CERA-20C for the initialisation of the coupled model. There is significant skill for early and most recent decades while there is a lack of skill mid-century. This shows that short hindcast periods are not sufficiently representative for longer-term behaviour due to decadal climate variability. |
format |
Lecture |
author |
Patrick Laloyaux |
spellingShingle |
Patrick Laloyaux Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
author_facet |
Patrick Laloyaux |
author_sort |
Patrick Laloyaux |
title |
Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
title_short |
Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
title_full |
Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
title_fullStr |
Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
title_full_unstemmed |
Application of coupled data assimilation at ECMWF |
title_sort |
application of coupled data assimilation at ecmwf |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241955 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/communities/eu https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241954 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3241955 oai:zenodo.org:3241955 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.324195510.5281/zenodo.3241954 |
_version_ |
1810460947771293696 |