Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Gros Morne National Park of Canada under differing levels of warming

• Main Authors: Price, Jeff, Forstenhäusler, Nicole, Graham, Erin, Osborn, Timothy J., Warren, Rachel
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2024
• Subjects: Gros Morne National Park
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12745403

Gros Morne National Park is among the top 13% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. Most of the park is projected to be relatively resilient to climate change, even at 4°C. However, lower, coastal portions of the park are projected to require increasing levels of adaptation effort as warming levels exceed 2°C. Averaged over the entire area of this large park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 73.1% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 10.8% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 84.1% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 91.3% of its terrestrial biodiversity. Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.1° - 1.1°C. With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for all months except August-October (whose new average is equivalent to experienced 1 in 20 years). Nine months have seen decreases in precipitation (October-April, June and August) with the rest seeing increases. Models project that all months will become wetter. The number of months classified as being in severe drought has nearly tripled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to decline, and those in a waterlogged state to increase. Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially away from the coast, taking into account changes in extreme events. However, coastal areas would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 2°C and above.