Нестационарность связи между вариацией площади осеннего снежного покрова в Сибири и Арктическим колебанием последующей зимой

• Main Authors: Худякова Т.А., Мартынова Ю.В.
• Format: Conference Object
• Language: Russian
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Arctic; Siberia
• Online Access: https://zenodo.org/record/1251645; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1251645

The purpose of this research is to identify periods where an influence of a Siberian snow cover variation in October on a Arctic Oscillation (AO) behavior in the following winter is appeared. A territory of Western Siberia (between 55° - 74° N and 60º- 90º E) was considered in the research. Analysis was provided on the base of NOAA snow cover data with a weekly time resolution and AO index data with a monthly time resolution for a time period 1979-2016. A maximum area of the October snow cover (Smax) and a difference between the maximum and minimum area (Sint) were calculated for each year. The AO indexes were considered for each winter month separately and on average for the winter season. Correlation coefficients between October Smax, Sint and the following winter AO indexes were calculated for the whole time period (1979-2016) and for the all sub-series in the period. The greatest statistically significant values of correlation between Smax, Sint in October and the AO index in the following winter season (December-February) were observed just in small time series with the length 13-14 years with the beginning of the periods in 1988, 1989. However, significant relationships, in the case of dependencies between Smax and the AO index, were also noted for periods of 16-23 years, but only for α=0,1. For α=0,05 statistically significant correlations were noted only for the series of 10-13 years. The periods with the length of 10-13 years with the largest correlations correspond to the positive values of the AO index (at the end of the 20th century – 1988-2000). The most strong relationships between Smax, Sint and the AO index were appeared in December. The greatest significant correlations were obtained for the periods of 14-18 and 20-25 years. In January, the relationships between only Sint and AO index were identified for the periods of 11-17 years. For February, the significant relationships were identified between Smax and the AO index for α=0,1 for both small time series and for the periods up to 23 years. For ...