Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 is associated with great...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:1234599 2023-05-15T13:49:05+02:00 Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A. Hu, Aixue Arblaster, Julie M. Fasullo, John Trenberth, Kevin E. 2013-09-01 https://zenodo.org/record/1234599 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 unknown https://zenodo.org/record/1234599 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 oai:zenodo.org:1234599 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode info:eu-repo/semantics/article publication-article 2013 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 2023-03-11T04:18:27Z Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors examine processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Zenodo Antarctic Pacific Journal of Climate 26 18 7298 7310 |
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Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors examine processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Meehl, Gerald A. Hu, Aixue Arblaster, Julie M. Fasullo, John Trenberth, Kevin E. |
spellingShingle |
Meehl, Gerald A. Hu, Aixue Arblaster, Julie M. Fasullo, John Trenberth, Kevin E. Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
author_facet |
Meehl, Gerald A. Hu, Aixue Arblaster, Julie M. Fasullo, John Trenberth, Kevin E. |
author_sort |
Meehl, Gerald A. |
title |
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
title_short |
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
title_full |
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation |
title_sort |
externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the interdecadal pacific oscillation |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/1234599 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Pacific |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_relation |
https://zenodo.org/record/1234599 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 oai:zenodo.org:1234599 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
18 |
container_start_page |
7298 |
op_container_end_page |
7310 |
_version_ |
1766250803999277056 |