Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean
The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice–albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of thi...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:1232498 2023-06-06T11:42:47+02:00 Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean Mikel González‐Eguino Marc B. Neumann Iñaki Arto Iñigo Capellán‐Perez Sérgio H. Faria 2017-01-17 https://zenodo.org/record/1232498 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1232498 eng eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642260/ doi:10.1002/2016EF000429 doi:10.5281/zenodo.1233002 doi:10.5281/zenodo.1232497 https://zenodo.org/communities/transrisk https://zenodo.org/record/1232498 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1232498 oai:zenodo.org:1232498 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Sea‐ice‐albedo feedback Arctic Mitigation Integrated Assessment Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change Social Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint publication-preprint 2017 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.123249810.1002/2016EF00042910.5281/zenodo.123300210.5281/zenodo.1232497 2023-04-13T23:38:19Z The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice–albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential scenarios afterwards: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the mitigation efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5–15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20–51 % to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18–59 % higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5 °C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society. Report albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Zenodo Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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English |
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Sea‐ice‐albedo feedback Arctic Mitigation Integrated Assessment Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change Social Sciences |
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Sea‐ice‐albedo feedback Arctic Mitigation Integrated Assessment Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change Social Sciences Mikel González‐Eguino Marc B. Neumann Iñaki Arto Iñigo Capellán‐Perez Sérgio H. Faria Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
topic_facet |
Sea‐ice‐albedo feedback Arctic Mitigation Integrated Assessment Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change Social Sciences |
description |
The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice–albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential scenarios afterwards: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the mitigation efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2 °C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5–15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20–51 % to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18–59 % higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5 °C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society. |
format |
Report |
author |
Mikel González‐Eguino Marc B. Neumann Iñaki Arto Iñigo Capellán‐Perez Sérgio H. Faria |
author_facet |
Mikel González‐Eguino Marc B. Neumann Iñaki Arto Iñigo Capellán‐Perez Sérgio H. Faria |
author_sort |
Mikel González‐Eguino |
title |
Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
title_short |
Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
title_full |
Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the Arctic Ocean |
title_sort |
mitigation implications of an ice‐free summer in the arctic ocean |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://zenodo.org/record/1232498 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1232498 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/642260/ doi:10.1002/2016EF000429 doi:10.5281/zenodo.1233002 doi:10.5281/zenodo.1232497 https://zenodo.org/communities/transrisk https://zenodo.org/record/1232498 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1232498 oai:zenodo.org:1232498 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.123249810.1002/2016EF00042910.5281/zenodo.123300210.5281/zenodo.1232497 |
_version_ |
1767951574084091904 |