Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead"
In light of uncertainties regarding climate sensitivity and future greenhouse gas emissions, we explore the plausibility of sustained global warming over the next millennium higher than what is usually expected. Using an Earth system model with interactive CO2 and CH4, we performed simulations for t...
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ftzenodo:oai:zenodo.org:11187709 2024-09-15T17:43:33+00:00 Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" Kaufhold, Christine Willeit, Matteo Talento, Stefanie Ganopolski, Andrey Rockström, Johan 2024-05-14 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187709 eng eng Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187708 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187709 oai:zenodo.org:11187709 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode hothouse anthropogenic climate change emission scenarios climate sensitivity info:eu-repo/semantics/other 2024 ftzenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1118770910.5281/zenodo.11187708 2024-07-25T13:37:56Z In light of uncertainties regarding climate sensitivity and future greenhouse gas emissions, we explore the plausibility of sustained global warming over the next millennium higher than what is usually expected. Using an Earth system model with interactive CO2 and CH4, we performed simulations for the next millennium under extended SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. These scenarios are associated with peak global warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 3°C, respectively, for an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of ∼3K; considered the best estimate in the latest IPCC report. With ECS=5K, which is within the likely range given by the IPCC, peak warming in all these scenarios more than doubles. Approximately 50% of this additional warming is attributed to positive carbon cycle feedbacks with similar contributions from CO2 and CH4. Residual CO2 emissions of 1 PgC yr−1 (<10% of present-day) for the duration of the entire millennium would allow high atmospheric CO2 concentration levels to remain constant, keeping global temperatures climbing until 3000 CE. Under the highest ECS considered, warming in SSP2-4.5 can be sustained around 8°C, which would have serious consequences for strongly nonlinear Earth system elements such as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This study shows that a hothouse Earth trajectory cannot be excluded, even without potentially significant nonlinear positive feedbacks not included in the model. It demonstrates the importance of properly accounting for all major climate-related feedbacks and associated uncertainties, to correctly assess of the probability of irreversibly locking the planet on a path to a warm state. Other/Unknown Material Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Zenodo |
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English |
topic |
hothouse anthropogenic climate change emission scenarios climate sensitivity |
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hothouse anthropogenic climate change emission scenarios climate sensitivity Kaufhold, Christine Willeit, Matteo Talento, Stefanie Ganopolski, Andrey Rockström, Johan Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
topic_facet |
hothouse anthropogenic climate change emission scenarios climate sensitivity |
description |
In light of uncertainties regarding climate sensitivity and future greenhouse gas emissions, we explore the plausibility of sustained global warming over the next millennium higher than what is usually expected. Using an Earth system model with interactive CO2 and CH4, we performed simulations for the next millennium under extended SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. These scenarios are associated with peak global warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 3°C, respectively, for an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of ∼3K; considered the best estimate in the latest IPCC report. With ECS=5K, which is within the likely range given by the IPCC, peak warming in all these scenarios more than doubles. Approximately 50% of this additional warming is attributed to positive carbon cycle feedbacks with similar contributions from CO2 and CH4. Residual CO2 emissions of 1 PgC yr−1 (<10% of present-day) for the duration of the entire millennium would allow high atmospheric CO2 concentration levels to remain constant, keeping global temperatures climbing until 3000 CE. Under the highest ECS considered, warming in SSP2-4.5 can be sustained around 8°C, which would have serious consequences for strongly nonlinear Earth system elements such as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This study shows that a hothouse Earth trajectory cannot be excluded, even without potentially significant nonlinear positive feedbacks not included in the model. It demonstrates the importance of properly accounting for all major climate-related feedbacks and associated uncertainties, to correctly assess of the probability of irreversibly locking the planet on a path to a warm state. |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Kaufhold, Christine Willeit, Matteo Talento, Stefanie Ganopolski, Andrey Rockström, Johan |
author_facet |
Kaufhold, Christine Willeit, Matteo Talento, Stefanie Ganopolski, Andrey Rockström, Johan |
author_sort |
Kaufhold, Christine |
title |
Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
title_short |
Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
title_full |
Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
title_fullStr |
Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
title_full_unstemmed |
Data set for the study "Uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
title_sort |
data set for the study "uncertainties in climate sensitivity and future carbon emissions permit for a hothouse climate ahead" |
publisher |
Zenodo |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187709 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187708 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11187709 oai:zenodo.org:11187709 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1118770910.5281/zenodo.11187708 |
_version_ |
1810490567635763200 |