Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model

• Main Authors: Coulon, Violaine, Klose, Ann Kristin, Kittel, Christoph, Edwards, Tamsin, Turner, Fiona, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Pattyn, Frank
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: unknown
• Published: Zenodo 2023
• Subjects: Ice-sheet modelling; Antarctic ice sheet; Sea-level projections; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10812218

========================================================================= Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model ========================================================================= --- INTRODUCTION --- This dataset contains the data and scripts required to reproduce the figures and tables presented in the study: "Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically-calibrated ice-sheet model" in The Cryosphere . We perform an ensemble of simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet between 1950 and 3014, forced by a panel of CMIP6 climate models, starting from present-day geometry with the Kori-ULB ice-sheet model v0.9. We calibrate our ensemble in a Bayesian framework to produce observationally-calibrated Antarctic projections used to investigate the future trajectory of the Antarctic ice sheet related to uncertainties in the future balance between sub-shelf melting and ice discharge on the one hand, and the surface mass balance on the other. All simulations are performed at a spatial resolution of 16 km. Hindcasts of the behaviour of the AIS over the period 1950-2014 CE are reproduced using changes in oceanic and atmospheric boundary conditions derived from the CMIP5 climate model NorESM1-M. As of the year 2015 CE, climate projections derived from a subset of CMIP6 climate models (MRI-ESM2-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, CESM2-WACCM and UKESM1-0-LL) are used as forcing until the year 2300 CE. Afterwards, no climate trend is applied. The forcing applied is derived from both the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5 and 1-2.6 scenarios. --- PROVIDED SCRIPTS: --- - 'KoriModelAll.m' and 'KoriInputParams.m': Kori-ULB ice flow model (more info at https://github.com/FrankPat/Kori-ULB) - 'Compute_Bayesian_Weight.m': calculation of the ensemble likelihood weights used in the Bayesian calibration. - 'Plot_parameter_space_distributions.m': calculation and plots of prior and posterior parameter probability distributions. - ...