Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Knowledge about rig markets is crucial for understanding the global oil market. In this paper we first develop a simple bargaining model for rig markets. Then we examine empirically the most important drivers for rig rate formation of floaters operating at the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the peri...
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Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department
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ftzbwkiel:oai:econstor.eu:10419/192814 2024-01-21T10:04:55+01:00 Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf Skjerpen, Terje Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid Rosendahl, Knut Einar Osmundsen, Petter 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/192814 eng eng Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department Series: Discussion Papers No. 832 gbv-ppn:847454592 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/192814 RePEc:ssb:dispap:832 http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen ddc:330 C32 C51 C53 L71 Q47 Rig rates Capacity utilization Oil price Forecasting Bootstrapping doc-type:workingPaper 2015 ftzbwkiel 2023-12-25T00:45:01Z Knowledge about rig markets is crucial for understanding the global oil market. In this paper we first develop a simple bargaining model for rig markets. Then we examine empirically the most important drivers for rig rate formation of floaters operating at the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the period 1991q4 to 2013q4. We use reduced form time series models with two equations and report conditional point and bootstrapped interval forecasts for rig rates and capacity utilization. We then consider two alternative simulations to examine how the oil price and remaining petroleum reserves influence rig rate formation of floaters. In the first alternative simulation we assume a relatively high crude oil price equal to 100 USD (2010) per barrel for the entire forecast period, whereas the reference case features the actual oil price with extrapolated values for the last quarters in the forecast period. According to our results, the rig rates will be about 34 percent higher in 2016q4 with the higher oil price. In the second alternative simulation we explore the effects of opening the Barents Sea and areas around Jan Mayen for petroleum activity. This contributes to dampening the fall in the rig rates and capacity utilization over the last part of the forecast period. Report Barents Sea Jan Mayen EconStor (German National Library of Economics, ZBW) Barents Sea Jan Mayen |
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Open Polar |
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EconStor (German National Library of Economics, ZBW) |
op_collection_id |
ftzbwkiel |
language |
English |
topic |
ddc:330 C32 C51 C53 L71 Q47 Rig rates Capacity utilization Oil price Forecasting Bootstrapping |
spellingShingle |
ddc:330 C32 C51 C53 L71 Q47 Rig rates Capacity utilization Oil price Forecasting Bootstrapping Skjerpen, Terje Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid Rosendahl, Knut Einar Osmundsen, Petter Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
topic_facet |
ddc:330 C32 C51 C53 L71 Q47 Rig rates Capacity utilization Oil price Forecasting Bootstrapping |
description |
Knowledge about rig markets is crucial for understanding the global oil market. In this paper we first develop a simple bargaining model for rig markets. Then we examine empirically the most important drivers for rig rate formation of floaters operating at the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the period 1991q4 to 2013q4. We use reduced form time series models with two equations and report conditional point and bootstrapped interval forecasts for rig rates and capacity utilization. We then consider two alternative simulations to examine how the oil price and remaining petroleum reserves influence rig rate formation of floaters. In the first alternative simulation we assume a relatively high crude oil price equal to 100 USD (2010) per barrel for the entire forecast period, whereas the reference case features the actual oil price with extrapolated values for the last quarters in the forecast period. According to our results, the rig rates will be about 34 percent higher in 2016q4 with the higher oil price. In the second alternative simulation we explore the effects of opening the Barents Sea and areas around Jan Mayen for petroleum activity. This contributes to dampening the fall in the rig rates and capacity utilization over the last part of the forecast period. |
format |
Report |
author |
Skjerpen, Terje Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid Rosendahl, Knut Einar Osmundsen, Petter |
author_facet |
Skjerpen, Terje Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid Rosendahl, Knut Einar Osmundsen, Petter |
author_sort |
Skjerpen, Terje |
title |
Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
title_short |
Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
title_full |
Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
title_fullStr |
Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf |
title_sort |
modelling and forecasting rig rates on the norwegian continental shelf |
publisher |
Oslo: Statistics Norway, Research Department |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/192814 |
geographic |
Barents Sea Jan Mayen |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea Jan Mayen |
genre |
Barents Sea Jan Mayen |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Jan Mayen |
op_relation |
Series: Discussion Papers No. 832 gbv-ppn:847454592 http://hdl.handle.net/10419/192814 RePEc:ssb:dispap:832 |
op_rights |
http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen |
_version_ |
1788695296652345344 |