Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have un...
Published in: | Communications Earth & Environment |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6442426 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
id |
ftzbmed:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6442426 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftzbmed:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6442426 2023-11-12T04:10:25+01:00 Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna 2021 https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6442426 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 eng eng https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6442426 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://lobid.org/resources/99370686607206441#!, 2(1):140 Article Marine biology Physical oceanography Projection and prediction Ocean sciences Zeitschriftenartikel 2021 ftzbmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 2023-10-22T22:06:50Z <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels.</jats:p> Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) Arctic Barents Sea Communications Earth & Environment 2 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) |
op_collection_id |
ftzbmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Article Marine biology Physical oceanography Projection and prediction Ocean sciences |
spellingShingle |
Article Marine biology Physical oceanography Projection and prediction Ocean sciences Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
topic_facet |
Article Marine biology Physical oceanography Projection and prediction Ocean sciences |
description |
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, decadal regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions have until now had low forecast skill. Here, we provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas a decade in advance. We develop a unified dynamical-statistical prediction system wherein statistical models link future stock biomass to dynamical predictions of sea surface temperature, while also considering different fishing mortalities. Our retrospective forecasts provide estimates of past performance of our models and they suggest differences in the source of prediction skill between the two cod stocks. We forecast the continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming decade, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels.</jats:p> |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
author_facet |
Koul, Vimal Sguotti, Camilla Årthun, Marius Brune, Sebastian Düsterhus, André Bogstad, Bjarte Ottersen, Geir Baehr, Johanna Schrum, Corinna |
author_sort |
Koul, Vimal |
title |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_short |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_fullStr |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance |
title_sort |
skilful prediction of cod stocks in the north and barents sea a decade in advance |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6442426 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
genre_facet |
Arctic cod Arctic Barents Sea Northeast Arctic cod |
op_source |
http://lobid.org/resources/99370686607206441#!, 2(1):140 |
op_relation |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6442426 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1782329894132252672 |