CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower ant...
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ftzbmed:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6418944 2023-10-09T21:55:07+02:00 CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah E Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris D 2018 https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6418944 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/2/024024/media/erl_204024_sd.pdf eng eng https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6418944 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/2/024024/media/erl_204024_sd.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Environmental research letters, 13(2):024024 climate model feedback carbon permafrost carbon budget Zeitschriftenartikel 2018 ftzbmed https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 2023-09-10T22:08:07Z Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity climate model (including climate response and process uncertainty) and a stabilization target of 2 °C, show that including the permafrost carbon pool in the model increases the land carbon emissions at stabilization by between 0.09 and 0.19 Gt C year−1 (10th to 90th percentile). These emissions are only slightly reduced to between 0.08 and 0.16 Gt C year−1 (10th to 90th percentile) when considering 1.5 °C stabilization targets. This suggests that uncertainties caused by the differences in stabilization target are small compared with those associated with model parameterisation uncertainty. Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60–100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) Jules ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) Environmental Research Letters 13 2 024024 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) |
op_collection_id |
ftzbmed |
language |
English |
topic |
climate model feedback carbon permafrost carbon budget |
spellingShingle |
climate model feedback carbon permafrost carbon budget Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah E Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris D CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
topic_facet |
climate model feedback carbon permafrost carbon budget |
description |
Large amounts of carbon are stored in the permafrost of the northern high latitude land. As permafrost degrades under a warming climate, some of this carbon will decompose and be released to the atmosphere. This positive climate-carbon feedback will reduce the natural carbon sinks and thus lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Simulations using an ensemble of the JULES-IMOGEN intermediate complexity climate model (including climate response and process uncertainty) and a stabilization target of 2 °C, show that including the permafrost carbon pool in the model increases the land carbon emissions at stabilization by between 0.09 and 0.19 Gt C year−1 (10th to 90th percentile). These emissions are only slightly reduced to between 0.08 and 0.16 Gt C year−1 (10th to 90th percentile) when considering 1.5 °C stabilization targets. This suggests that uncertainties caused by the differences in stabilization target are small compared with those associated with model parameterisation uncertainty. Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60–100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah E Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris D |
author_facet |
Burke, Eleanor Chadburn, Sarah E Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris D |
author_sort |
Burke, Eleanor |
title |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_short |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_full |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_fullStr |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_full_unstemmed |
CO2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C |
title_sort |
co2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °c |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6418944 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/2/024024/media/erl_204024_sd.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(140.917,140.917,-66.742,-66.742) |
geographic |
Jules |
geographic_facet |
Jules |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental research letters, 13(2):024024 |
op_relation |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6418944 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/2/024024/media/erl_204024_sd.pdf |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024024 |
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1779318916898619392 |