Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based a...
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ftzbmed:oai:frl.publisso.de:frl:6417989 2023-10-09T21:53:55+02:00 Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment Matthews, Tom Murphy, C McCarthy, G Broderick, C Wilby, R L 2018 https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6417989 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/1/014024/media/ERL_13_1_014024_suppdata.pdf eng eng https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6417989 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/1/014024/media/ERL_13_1_014024_suppdata.pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Environmental research letters, 13(1):014024 North Atlantic warming extratopical cyclones climate change attribution atmospheric river Zeitschriftenartikel 2018 ftzbmed https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 2023-09-10T22:08:05Z 'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) Environmental Research Letters 13 1 014024 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
PUBLISSO Fachrepositorium Lebenswissenschaften (ZB MED) |
op_collection_id |
ftzbmed |
language |
English |
topic |
North Atlantic warming extratopical cyclones climate change attribution atmospheric river |
spellingShingle |
North Atlantic warming extratopical cyclones climate change attribution atmospheric river Matthews, Tom Murphy, C McCarthy, G Broderick, C Wilby, R L Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
topic_facet |
North Atlantic warming extratopical cyclones climate change attribution atmospheric river |
description |
'Super' Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Matthews, Tom Murphy, C McCarthy, G Broderick, C Wilby, R L |
author_facet |
Matthews, Tom Murphy, C McCarthy, G Broderick, C Wilby, R L |
author_sort |
Matthews, Tom |
title |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_short |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_fullStr |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_sort |
super storm desmond: a process-based assessment |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6417989 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/1/014024/media/ERL_13_1_014024_suppdata.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental research letters, 13(1):014024 |
op_relation |
https://repository.publisso.de/resource/frl:6417989 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/13/1/014024/media/ERL_13_1_014024_suppdata.pdf |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014024 |
_version_ |
1779317290039246848 |