Extreme Cyclones and Storm Surges in the Past and Future Climates: A Sensitivity Study for the Baltic Sea Region

• Published in: IGARSS 2022 - 2022 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium
• Main Authors: Martin Mäll, Ülo Suursaar, Matías Gómez, Ryota Nakamura
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 2022
• Subjects: Solid modeling; Uncertainty; Sensitivity; Storms; Atmospheric modeling; Predictive models; Cyclones; Climate change; atmospheric movements; atmospheric temperature; climatology; finite volume methods; oceanographic regions; sea level; weather forecasting; wind; extreme cyclones; storm surges; Baltic Sea region; possible parameters; extratropical cyclones; Baltic Sea area; Holocene thermal maximum; modelling system; ARW-WRF; Finite Volume Community Ocean Model; surrogate background conditions; cyclone parameters; steeper climate change scenarios; higher air temperatures; North Atlantic ETCs; North Atlantic current systems; atmospheric parameters; pseudo-climate modeling; ETCs; typhoons; Holocene; global warming; north atlantic current; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10131/00015363; https://ynu.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=12717; https://ynu.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=12717&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the possible parameters of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) as they would occur in the Baltic Sea area at the end of the 21st century and in the past during the Holocene thermal maximum. Using a modelling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions, the results showed that changes in cyclone parameters are more profound under steeper climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) and under higher air temperatures. Most likely, the North Atlantic ETCs will become slightly stronger, but also the uncertainty increases. Nonlinear interactions between ice melt, North Atlantic current systems and atmospheric parameters probably induce an uncertainty both into future and past storminess reconstructions.