Extreme Cyclones and Storm Surges in the Past and Future Climates: A Sensitivity Study for the Baltic Sea Region

The purpose of the paper is to analyse the possible parameters of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) as they would occur in the Baltic Sea area at the end of the 21st century and in the past during the Holocene thermal maximum. Using a modelling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (AR...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IGARSS 2022 - 2022 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium
Main Authors: Martin Mäll, Ülo Suursaar, Matías Gómez, Ryota Nakamura
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 2022
Subjects:
Solid modeling
Uncertainty
Sensitivity
Storms
Atmospheric modeling
Predictive models
Cyclones
Climate change
atmospheric movements
atmospheric temperature
climatology
finite volume methods
oceanographic regions
sea level
weather forecasting
wind
extreme cyclones
storm surges
Baltic Sea region
possible parameters
extratropical cyclones
Baltic Sea area
Holocene thermal maximum
modelling system
ARW-WRF
Finite Volume Community Ocean Model
surrogate background conditions
cyclone parameters
steeper climate change scenarios
higher air temperatures
North Atlantic ETCs
North Atlantic current systems
atmospheric parameters
pseudo-climate modeling
ETCs
typhoons
Holocene
global warming
north atlantic current
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10131/00015363
https://ynu.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_uri&item_id=12717
https://ynu.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=12717&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1
Description
Summary:The purpose of the paper is to analyse the possible parameters of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) as they would occur in the Baltic Sea area at the end of the 21st century and in the past during the Holocene thermal maximum. Using a modelling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) atmospheric model, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and surrogate background conditions, the results showed that changes in cyclone parameters are more profound under steeper climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) and under higher air temperatures. Most likely, the North Atlantic ETCs will become slightly stronger, but also the uncertainty increases. Nonlinear interactions between ice melt, North Atlantic current systems and atmospheric parameters probably induce an uncertainty both into future and past storminess reconstructions.

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