Responding to Threats of Climate Change Mega-Catastrophes

• Main Authors: Kousky, Carolyn, Rostapshova, Olga, Toman, Michael, Zeckhauser, Richard
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: English
• Published: 2009
• Subjects: ABATEMENT; ABATEMENT COSTS; ABRUPT CLIMATE; ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE; ABSORPTION; ACID; ACID RAIN; ACIDIFICATION; ADVERSE IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE; AIR; ALBEDO; ALLOWANCE; ATMOSPHERE; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; BIOMASS; CARBON; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON ENERGY; CARBON ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES; CARBON SEQUESTRATION; CARBON TECHNOLOGIES; CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE; CATASTROPHIC EVENTS; CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE CHANGE CATASTROPHES; CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE; CLIMATE CHANGE DISASTERS; CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES; CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH; CLIMATE CHANGES; CLIMATE DYNAMICS; CLIMATE EXTREMES; CLIMATE IMPACTS; CLIMATE POLICY; CLIMATE RESEARCH; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY; CLIMATE SYSTEM; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CLIMATE-CHANGE CATASTROPHE; CLIMATE-CHANGE RISK ANALYSIS; CLIMATIC CHANGE; CLIMATIC IMPACTS; CLOUD COVER; CO; CO2; CONCENTRATIONS; CONTINGENCY PLANNING; CONTINGENCY PLANS; COSTS OF ABATEMENT; COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; COST­BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DAMAGES; DEEP UNCERTAINTY; DESERTIFICATION; DISASTER; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; DISASTER PREPAREDNESS; DISASTER REDUCTION; DISASTER RISK; DISASTER RISK REDUCTION; DISASTER RISKS; DISCOUNT RATE; DROUGHT; DROUGHTS; EARLY WARNING; ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS; ECONOMIC COSTS; ECONOMIC GROWTH; ECONOMIC MODEL; ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE; EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT; EMERGENCY RESPONDERS; EMISSIONS CORRIDORS; EMISSIONS LEVELS; ENERGY SYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; EVACUATION; EXTINCTION RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE; EXTREME EVENT; EXTREME EVENTS; FAT TAIL; FAT TAILS; FERTILIZATION; FINANCIAL CRISIS; FINANCIAL SUPPORT; FLOOD; FLOOD PROTECTION; FLOODED; FLOODING; FLOODS; FOOD AID; FOOD SHORTAGES; FOREST; FOREST PRODUCTS; GHG; GHGS; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE; GLOBAL EMISSIONS; GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS; GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES; GLOBAL TEMPERATURE; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE; GREENHOUSE GAS; GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; GREENHOUSE WARMING; HABITATS; HEAT WAVE; HEAT WAVES; HURRICANE; HURRICANES; HYDROLOGIC CYCLE; ICE AGE; ICE SHEET; ICE SHEETS; IMPACT OF CLIMATE; IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE; IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE; IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; INSURANCE; INSURANCE INDUSTRY; INSURANCE MARKETS; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; INVESTMENT DECISIONS; IPCC; LOW-CARBON; MEAN TEMPERATURE; MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE; MEDICINE; METHANE; NATIONAL INCOME; NATURAL DISASTERS; NATURAL PHENOMENA; NEGATIVE IMPACTS; NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; NUCLEAR POWER; OCEAN CIRCULATION; OCEAN CURRENTS; PANDEMIC; PANDEMICS; PARTICLES; PARTICULATE; PARTICULATE MATTER; PARTICULATES; POLICY ANALYSIS; POLICY IMPLICATIONS; PORTFOLIO; PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH; PRECIPITATION; PUBLIC SAFETY; PUMPS; PURCHASES; RADIATIVE FORCING; RAINFALL; RAPID MELTING; RATE OF CLIMATE CHANGE; REFLECTIVITY; RELATIVE PRICE; RELATIVE PRICES; RESOURCE ECONOMICS; RISK MANAGEMENT; RISK REDUCTION; RISK REDUCTIONS; RISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE; RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; SAFETY; SCENARIOS; SCIENTIST; SCIENTISTS; SEA LEVEL RISE; SEA-LEVEL; SEA-LEVEL RISE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSES; SET ASIDE; SEVERE WEATHER; SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS; STORM; STORMS; SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE; SULFATE; SULFATE PARTICLES; SULFATES; SULFUR; TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE INCREASES; TERRORISM; TERRORIST; THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE; THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE; TOTAL COST; UNCERTAINTIES; UPPER ATMOSPHERE; URBAN AREAS; UTILITY FUNCTION; UTILITY FUNCTIONS; WAR; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4318; http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091112100234

There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.