Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014. As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool w...
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ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/8229 2023-05-15T15:02:02+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, Johannes H. C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas Henry Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong 2016-03-07 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8229 en eng IOPScience https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8229 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 Attribution 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 CC-BY Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 Article 2016 ftwhoas https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2022-05-28T22:59:39Z © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014. As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation ARCSS program and Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (grants OPP-0806465, OPP-0806394, and 955713) with additional funding from SITES (Swedish Science Foundation), Future Forest (Mistra), and a Marie ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) |
op_collection_id |
ftwhoas |
language |
English |
description |
© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014. As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation ARCSS program and Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (grants OPP-0806465, OPP-0806394, and 955713) with additional funding from SITES (Swedish Science Foundation), Future Forest (Mistra), and a Marie ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, Johannes H. C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas Henry Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
spellingShingle |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, Johannes H. C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas Henry Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, F. Stuart Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, A. David Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, Johannes H. C. de Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas Henry Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment |
publisher |
IOPScience |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8229 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016): 034014 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/8229 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
op_rights |
Attribution 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
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1766334030970617856 |