Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf
Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033, doi:10.1890/11-1841.1. Vessel strikes are...
Published in: | Ecological Applications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Ecological Society of America
2012
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622 |
id |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/5622 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/5622 2023-05-15T16:08:17+02:00 Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf van der Hoop, Julie Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. 2012-10 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622 en_US eng Ecological Society of America https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622 doi:10.1890/11-1841.1 Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033 doi:10.1890/11-1841.1 Absolute probability estimates Endangered whales Eubalaena glacialis Marine area closure Mortality reduction North Atlantic right whale Roseway Basin Scotian Shelf Vessel routing Vessel strike Article 2012 ftwhoas https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 2022-05-28T22:58:45Z Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033, doi:10.1890/11-1841.1. Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “area to be avoided” (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775–2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2–16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) Ecological Applications 22 7 2021 2033 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) |
op_collection_id |
ftwhoas |
language |
English |
topic |
Absolute probability estimates Endangered whales Eubalaena glacialis Marine area closure Mortality reduction North Atlantic right whale Roseway Basin Scotian Shelf Vessel routing Vessel strike |
spellingShingle |
Absolute probability estimates Endangered whales Eubalaena glacialis Marine area closure Mortality reduction North Atlantic right whale Roseway Basin Scotian Shelf Vessel routing Vessel strike van der Hoop, Julie Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
topic_facet |
Absolute probability estimates Endangered whales Eubalaena glacialis Marine area closure Mortality reduction North Atlantic right whale Roseway Basin Scotian Shelf Vessel routing Vessel strike |
description |
Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033, doi:10.1890/11-1841.1. Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary “area to be avoided” (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775–2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2–16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van der Hoop, Julie Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. |
author_facet |
van der Hoop, Julie Vanderlaan, Angelia S. M. Taggart, Christopher T. |
author_sort |
van der Hoop, Julie |
title |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_short |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_full |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_fullStr |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_full_unstemmed |
Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf |
title_sort |
absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to north atlantic right whales in roseway basin, scotian shelf |
publisher |
Ecological Society of America |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622 |
genre |
Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
genre_facet |
Eubalaena glacialis North Atlantic North Atlantic right whale |
op_source |
Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033 doi:10.1890/11-1841.1 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 Ecological Applications 22 (2012): 2021–2033 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/5622 doi:10.1890/11-1841.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1841.1 |
container_title |
Ecological Applications |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2021 |
op_container_end_page |
2033 |
_version_ |
1766404342471983104 |