Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels
Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1. We assess the response of...
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ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/4669 2023-05-15T13:04:55+02:00 Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels Ainley, David G. Russell, Joellen Jenouvrier, Stephanie Woehler, Eric Lyver, Philip O'B. Fraser, William R. Kooyman, Gerald L. 2010-02 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1912/4669 en_US eng Ecological Society of America https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2289.1 Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/4669 doi:10.1890/08-2289.1 Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66 doi:10.1890/08-2289.1 Adelie penguin Antarctica Climate change Climate modeling Emperor Penguin Habitat optimum Sea ice 2°C warming Article 2010 ftwhoas https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2289.1 2022-05-28T22:58:25Z Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1. We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and 75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice Southern Ocean Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) Antarctic Southern Ocean Ecological Monographs 80 1 49 66 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) |
op_collection_id |
ftwhoas |
language |
English |
topic |
Adelie penguin Antarctica Climate change Climate modeling Emperor Penguin Habitat optimum Sea ice 2°C warming |
spellingShingle |
Adelie penguin Antarctica Climate change Climate modeling Emperor Penguin Habitat optimum Sea ice 2°C warming Ainley, David G. Russell, Joellen Jenouvrier, Stephanie Woehler, Eric Lyver, Philip O'B. Fraser, William R. Kooyman, Gerald L. Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
topic_facet |
Adelie penguin Antarctica Climate change Climate modeling Emperor Penguin Habitat optimum Sea ice 2°C warming |
description |
Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66, doi:10.1890/08-2289.1. We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2°C warming (2025–2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso- to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2°C point. Colonies north of 70° S are projected to decrease or disappear: 50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and 75% of Adélie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ainley, David G. Russell, Joellen Jenouvrier, Stephanie Woehler, Eric Lyver, Philip O'B. Fraser, William R. Kooyman, Gerald L. |
author_facet |
Ainley, David G. Russell, Joellen Jenouvrier, Stephanie Woehler, Eric Lyver, Philip O'B. Fraser, William R. Kooyman, Gerald L. |
author_sort |
Ainley, David G. |
title |
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
title_short |
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
title_full |
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic penguin response to habitat change as Earth's troposphere reaches 2°C above preindustrial levels |
title_sort |
antarctic penguin response to habitat change as earth's troposphere reaches 2°c above preindustrial levels |
publisher |
Ecological Society of America |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/4669 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Pygoscelis adeliae Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66 doi:10.1890/08-2289.1 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2289.1 Ecological Monographs 80 (2010): 49–66 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/4669 doi:10.1890/08-2289.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1890/08-2289.1 |
container_title |
Ecological Monographs |
container_volume |
80 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
49 |
op_container_end_page |
66 |
_version_ |
1766375199946571776 |