On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033546. There is some questi...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2008
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1912/3361 |
id |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/3361 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/3361 2023-05-15T17:28:21+02:00 On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones Solow, Andrew R. Beet, Andrew R. 2008-06-03 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1912/3361 en_US eng American Geophysical Union https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033546 Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/3361 doi:10.1029/2008GL033546 Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803 doi:10.1029/2008GL033546 Poisson regression model Observation probability North Atlantic tropical cyclones Article 2008 ftwhoas https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033546 2022-05-28T22:57:55Z Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033546. There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To address this question, a statistical model of the relationship between annual cyclone counts between 1870 and 2004 and sea surface temperature and the state of the Southern Oscillation is extended to allow for non-decreasing observation probability prior to 1966. The estimated observation probabilities increase from 0.72 in 1870 to 1 in 1964. Allowing for record incompleteness reduces the estimated effect of sea surface temperature on annual tropical cyclone activity. This work was supported by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) Geophysical Research Letters 35 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) |
op_collection_id |
ftwhoas |
language |
English |
topic |
Poisson regression model Observation probability North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
spellingShingle |
Poisson regression model Observation probability North Atlantic tropical cyclones Solow, Andrew R. Beet, Andrew R. On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
topic_facet |
Poisson regression model Observation probability North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
description |
Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803, doi:10.1029/2008GL033546. There is some question as to whether the historical record of observed North Atlantic tropical cyclones prior to the advent of satellite coverage is complete. This question is central to understanding the historical trend in tropical cyclone activity and the effect of environmental factors on it. To address this question, a statistical model of the relationship between annual cyclone counts between 1870 and 2004 and sea surface temperature and the state of the Southern Oscillation is extended to allow for non-decreasing observation probability prior to 1966. The estimated observation probabilities increase from 0.72 in 1870 to 1 in 1964. Allowing for record incompleteness reduces the estimated effect of sea surface temperature on annual tropical cyclone activity. This work was supported by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Solow, Andrew R. Beet, Andrew R. |
author_facet |
Solow, Andrew R. Beet, Andrew R. |
author_sort |
Solow, Andrew R. |
title |
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
title_short |
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
title_full |
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the incompleteness of the historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
on the incompleteness of the historical record of north atlantic tropical cyclones |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/3361 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803 doi:10.1029/2008GL033546 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033546 Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L11803 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/3361 doi:10.1029/2008GL033546 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL033546 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1766120975329394688 |