An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(9), (2020): 3863-3882, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1. The direc...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1912/26274 |
id |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/26274 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftwhoas:oai:darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org:1912/26274 2023-05-15T14:24:45+02:00 An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh 2020-04-06 https://hdl.handle.net/1912/26274 unknown American Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 Simon, A., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G., & Kwon, Y. (2020). An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3863-3882. https://hdl.handle.net/1912/26274 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 Simon, A., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G., & Kwon, Y. (2020). An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3863-3882. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate variability Ice loss/growth Article 2020 ftwhoas https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 2022-05-28T23:03:50Z Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(9), (2020): 3863-3882, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1. The direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1 winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1 increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed. This research was supported by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) Arctic Canada Journal of Climate 33 9 3863 3882 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Woods Hole Scientific Community: WHOAS (Woods Hole Open Access Server) |
op_collection_id |
ftwhoas |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate variability Ice loss/growth |
spellingShingle |
Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate variability Ice loss/growth Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate variability Ice loss/growth |
description |
Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(9), (2020): 3863-3882, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1. The direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1 winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1 increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed. This research was supported by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Grant ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh |
author_facet |
Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young-Oh |
author_sort |
Simon, Amélie |
title |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_short |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_full |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_sort |
observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1912/26274 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Simon, A., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G., & Kwon, Y. (2020). An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3863-3882. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 Simon, A., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G., & Kwon, Y. (2020). An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic Sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 33(9), 3863-3882. https://hdl.handle.net/1912/26274 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3863 |
op_container_end_page |
3882 |
_version_ |
1766297192726790144 |