Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios
Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type. This study, in contrast, explores timber...
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ftvytmagnusuniv:oai:portalcris.vdu.lt:20.500.12259/92912 2023-05-15T16:08:53+02:00 Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios Mozgeris, Gintautas Kavaliauskas, Marius Brukas, Vilis Stanislovaitis, Andrius NL 2019 p. 36-44 text/xml application/pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934116303859?via%3Dihub#! https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/92912 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 en eng Forest policy and economics. Amsterdam : Elsevier Science BV, 2019, Vol. 103 Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science) Scopus BIOSIS Previews 13899341 VDU02-000054281 Scopus: 2-s2.0-85040698504 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934116303859?via%3Dihub#! https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/92912 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 WOS:000466849300005 Forest management Scenarios Modelling Economic assessment Miškotyra / Forestry (A004) Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science ar/ir Scopus / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science or / and Scopus (S1) 2019 ftvytmagnusuniv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 2020-12-22T00:46:39Z Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type. This study, in contrast, explores timber supply in a multi-disciplinary approach that analyses contextual factors and expands the space of future forest management options. Methodological steps include: (i) participatory development of qualitative scenarios, following different trajectories of contextual factors affecting forest management; (ii) identification of forest management programmes at the stand level; and (iii) modelling and economic assessment of future flows of timber at the landscape level. This research is carried out in a case study area (CSA) in central Lithuania containing 37,000 ha of forest, of which 80% is under state ownership. The development of forest resources was simulated for four contextualised scenarios: Business as Usual, Efficiency and Reforms, Ecology, and Climate Change Mitigation. Six forest-management programs were constructed together with stakeholders to describe the behaviour of state forest managers and private forest owners under each scenario. All four scenarios led to increased timber supply, largely due to the high proportion of middle-aged and premature stands in current forests. Notably, the present-day approach of rigid area control prioritises a steady timber supply through an evener age-class structure but largely fails on the last point. Our scenario analysis shows that relaxation of legislative requirements not only leads to increased long-term contribution to economic welfare but also enables achievement of evener age-class distributions Miškų ir ekologijos fakultetas Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas Other/Unknown Material evener Vytautas Magnus University e-Publication Repository (VMU ePub) Forest Policy and Economics 103 36 44 |
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Open Polar |
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Vytautas Magnus University e-Publication Repository (VMU ePub) |
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ftvytmagnusuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Forest management Scenarios Modelling Economic assessment Miškotyra / Forestry (A004) |
spellingShingle |
Forest management Scenarios Modelling Economic assessment Miškotyra / Forestry (A004) Mozgeris, Gintautas Kavaliauskas, Marius Brukas, Vilis Stanislovaitis, Andrius Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
topic_facet |
Forest management Scenarios Modelling Economic assessment Miškotyra / Forestry (A004) |
description |
Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type. This study, in contrast, explores timber supply in a multi-disciplinary approach that analyses contextual factors and expands the space of future forest management options. Methodological steps include: (i) participatory development of qualitative scenarios, following different trajectories of contextual factors affecting forest management; (ii) identification of forest management programmes at the stand level; and (iii) modelling and economic assessment of future flows of timber at the landscape level. This research is carried out in a case study area (CSA) in central Lithuania containing 37,000 ha of forest, of which 80% is under state ownership. The development of forest resources was simulated for four contextualised scenarios: Business as Usual, Efficiency and Reforms, Ecology, and Climate Change Mitigation. Six forest-management programs were constructed together with stakeholders to describe the behaviour of state forest managers and private forest owners under each scenario. All four scenarios led to increased timber supply, largely due to the high proportion of middle-aged and premature stands in current forests. Notably, the present-day approach of rigid area control prioritises a steady timber supply through an evener age-class structure but largely fails on the last point. Our scenario analysis shows that relaxation of legislative requirements not only leads to increased long-term contribution to economic welfare but also enables achievement of evener age-class distributions Miškų ir ekologijos fakultetas Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas |
format |
Other/Unknown Material |
author |
Mozgeris, Gintautas Kavaliauskas, Marius Brukas, Vilis Stanislovaitis, Andrius |
author_facet |
Mozgeris, Gintautas Kavaliauskas, Marius Brukas, Vilis Stanislovaitis, Andrius |
author_sort |
Mozgeris, Gintautas |
title |
Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
title_short |
Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
title_full |
Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
title_sort |
assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934116303859?via%3Dihub#! https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/92912 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 |
op_coverage |
NL |
genre |
evener |
genre_facet |
evener |
op_relation |
Forest policy and economics. Amsterdam : Elsevier Science BV, 2019, Vol. 103 Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science) Scopus BIOSIS Previews 13899341 VDU02-000054281 Scopus: 2-s2.0-85040698504 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934116303859?via%3Dihub#! https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12259/92912 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 WOS:000466849300005 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.01.002 |
container_title |
Forest Policy and Economics |
container_volume |
103 |
container_start_page |
36 |
op_container_end_page |
44 |
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1766404912154935296 |