Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania
A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out an...
Published in: | Annals of Glaciology |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 |
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ftvytmagnusuniv:oai:portalcris.vdu.lt:20.500.12259/50024 2023-05-15T13:29:22+02:00 Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo GB 2008 p. 33-37 text/xml https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 en eng Annals of glaciology. Cambridge: International Glaciological society, 2008, Vol. 49, no. 1 Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science) INSPEC CAB Abstracts Scopus 02603055 VDU02-000004933 https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 WOS:000264862900007 Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1) Matematika / Mathematics (N001) research article 2008 ftvytmagnusuniv https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 2021-03-16T00:44:30Z A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out and coupled with flow routing using Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. Temperature forecast is used as the driving variable. Due to the relative smoothness of snowmelt over time and the considerable basin size, the model provides cceptable results. Kalman filtering is then used to merge the estimates from the snowmelt model with those from an ARIMA flow model, resulting in better forecasting than that using each method alone. Uncertainty analysis of the snowmelt-model results is then carried out, snowing considerable influence of the main parameter degree-day and ofsoil moisture conditions. Therefore these must be accurately estimated for forecasting purposes during flood events Lietuvos energetikos institutas Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Vytautas Magnus University e-Publication Repository (VMU ePub) Annals of Glaciology 49 33 37 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vytautas Magnus University e-Publication Repository (VMU ePub) |
op_collection_id |
ftvytmagnusuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1) Matematika / Mathematics (N001) |
spellingShingle |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1) Matematika / Mathematics (N001) Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
topic_facet |
Reservoir Hydropower system Forecast Straipsnis Clarivate Analytics Web of Science / Article in Clarivate Analytics Web of Science (S1) Matematika / Mathematics (N001) |
description |
A snowmelt model is used for the weekly forecast of daily discharges in the Kaunas reservoir, Lithuania. The results are used to feed a risk-based decision-making model developed by the first author for dam operation during floods. Physically based calibration of a degree-day model is carried out and coupled with flow routing using Nash's instantaneous unit hydrograph theory. Temperature forecast is used as the driving variable. Due to the relative smoothness of snowmelt over time and the considerable basin size, the model provides cceptable results. Kalman filtering is then used to merge the estimates from the snowmelt model with those from an ARIMA flow model, resulting in better forecasting than that using each method alone. Uncertainty analysis of the snowmelt-model results is then carried out, snowing considerable influence of the main parameter degree-day and ofsoil moisture conditions. Therefore these must be accurately estimated for forecasting purposes during flood events Lietuvos energetikos institutas Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo |
author_facet |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita Bocchiola, Daniele Augutis, Juozas Rosso, Renzo |
author_sort |
Simaitytė Volskienė, Jurgita |
title |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_short |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_full |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_fullStr |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_full_unstemmed |
Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania |
title_sort |
use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in lithuania |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 |
op_coverage |
GB |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology |
op_relation |
Annals of glaciology. Cambridge: International Glaciological society, 2008, Vol. 49, no. 1 Science Citation Index Expanded (Web of Science) INSPEC CAB Abstracts Scopus 02603055 VDU02-000004933 https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 WOS:000264862900007 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408787814988 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
49 |
container_start_page |
33 |
op_container_end_page |
37 |
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1766000216891195392 |