Statistical associations of teleconnection indices and space weather with spring weather pattern in the Eastern Baltic region

• Published in: International Journal of Climatology
• Main Authors: Venclovienė, Jonė, Kacienė, Giedrė, Kiznys, Deivydas, Juknys, Romualdas
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: English
• Published: 2021
• Subjects: Teleconnection indices; Spring weather; Space weather events; Estern Baltic region; Multivariate regression; Solar wind; Aplinkos inžinerija / Environmental engineering (T004); Arctic; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.6901; https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6901

The studies of associations between solar inputs and climate are mostly designed for winter or cold period; whereas the knowledge about these associations during spring on a day‐to‐day time scale are very scarce. Therefore, the aim of this study is to detect the response of spring air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and atmospheric pressure (ATP) to variation in teleconnection indices and space weather variables on the day‐to‐day timescale during the period of 1998–2017 in six cities of Eastern part of the Baltic region. We created a multivariate linear regression model for weather variables including month, the linear and seasonal trend, different teleconnection patterns, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation phase, the presence of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and space weather variables. The multivariate models for the mean daily weather variables showed a positive association between T and the daily Arctic oscillation, monthly Scandinavian pattern (SCA) indices, solar proton events (SPEs) with a lag of 1–9 days, and solar wind dynamic pressure (P) with a lag of 1–2 days and negative association between T and East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) index. The mean RH positively correlated with a long‐term and short‐term variation in galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar wind speed (SWS) with a lag of 0–6 days and negatively correlated with EAWR and NINO3.4 indices. The mean ATP was negatively associated with both long‐term and short‐term changes in GCR and positively associated with the North Atlantic oscillation, EA/WR and SCA indices, By component of interplanetary magnetic field with a lag of 2 days, P, days of Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) and SWS with a lag of 4–6 days. These results show the significant short‐term effects of SSW, SPEs, SIRs and solar wind variables on spring weather pattern in the Eastern part of the Baltic region Aplinkos tyrimų centras Aplinkotyros katedra Vytauto Didžiojo universitetas