Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most...
Published in: | Journal of Risk Research |
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2006
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/2180169/191890.pdf |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 2024-06-23T07:46:35+00:00 Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise Tol, R.S.J. Bohn, M. Downing, T.E. Guillerminet, M.L. Hizsnyik, E. Kasperson, R. Lonsdale, K. Mays, C. Nicholls, R.J. Olsthoorn, A.A. Pfeifle, G. Poumadere, M. Toth, F.L. Vafeidis, A.T. van der Werff, P.E. Yetkiner, I.H. 2006 application/pdf https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/2180169/191890.pdf eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Tol , R S J , Bohn , M , Downing , T E , Guillerminet , M L , Hizsnyik , E , Kasperson , R , Lonsdale , K , Mays , C , Nicholls , R J , Olsthoorn , A A , Pfeifle , G , Poumadere , M , Toth , F L , Vafeidis , A T , van der Werff , P E & Yetkiner , I H 2006 , ' Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise ' , Journal of Risk Research , vol. 9 , no. 5 , pp. 467-482 . https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2006 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 2024-06-12T23:59:53Z There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Antarctic Rhone ENVELOPE(158.733,158.733,-79.983,-79.983) West Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Risk Research 9 5 467 482 |
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Open Polar |
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
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ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Tol, R.S.J. Bohn, M. Downing, T.E. Guillerminet, M.L. Hizsnyik, E. Kasperson, R. Lonsdale, K. Mays, C. Nicholls, R.J. Olsthoorn, A.A. Pfeifle, G. Poumadere, M. Toth, F.L. Vafeidis, A.T. van der Werff, P.E. Yetkiner, I.H. Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tol, R.S.J. Bohn, M. Downing, T.E. Guillerminet, M.L. Hizsnyik, E. Kasperson, R. Lonsdale, K. Mays, C. Nicholls, R.J. Olsthoorn, A.A. Pfeifle, G. Poumadere, M. Toth, F.L. Vafeidis, A.T. van der Werff, P.E. Yetkiner, I.H. |
author_facet |
Tol, R.S.J. Bohn, M. Downing, T.E. Guillerminet, M.L. Hizsnyik, E. Kasperson, R. Lonsdale, K. Mays, C. Nicholls, R.J. Olsthoorn, A.A. Pfeifle, G. Poumadere, M. Toth, F.L. Vafeidis, A.T. van der Werff, P.E. Yetkiner, I.H. |
author_sort |
Tol, R.S.J. |
title |
Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
title_short |
Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
title_full |
Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
title_sort |
adaptation to five metres of sea level rise |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/2180169/191890.pdf |
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ENVELOPE(158.733,158.733,-79.983,-79.983) |
geographic |
Antarctic Rhone West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Rhone West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Tol , R S J , Bohn , M , Downing , T E , Guillerminet , M L , Hizsnyik , E , Kasperson , R , Lonsdale , K , Mays , C , Nicholls , R J , Olsthoorn , A A , Pfeifle , G , Poumadere , M , Toth , F L , Vafeidis , A T , van der Werff , P E & Yetkiner , I H 2006 , ' Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise ' , Journal of Risk Research , vol. 9 , no. 5 , pp. 467-482 . https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/db3be2b2-f20e-4fed-bd6f-8cbbcc935a88 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600717632 |
container_title |
Journal of Risk Research |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
467 |
op_container_end_page |
482 |
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1802646813895819264 |