Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change
With global warming and its amplified effect on the Tibetan Plateau, the permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau has been significantly degraded, manifested by decreased permafrost thickness, increased active layer thickness, thermokarst, and surface subsidence, causing severe damage to infrastructure. To...
Published in: | Cold Regions Science and Technology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2023
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 2024-06-23T07:44:56+00:00 Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change Chen, Rui von Deimling, Thomas Schneider Boike, Julia Wu, Qingbai Langer, Moritz 2023-08 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Chen , R , von Deimling , T S , Boike , J , Wu , Q & Langer , M 2023 , ' Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 212 , 103881 , pp. 1-12 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 Climate change Infrastructure stability Permafrost degradation Qinghai-Tibet Railway article 2023 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 2024-06-06T00:40:37Z With global warming and its amplified effect on the Tibetan Plateau, the permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau has been significantly degraded, manifested by decreased permafrost thickness, increased active layer thickness, thermokarst, and surface subsidence, causing severe damage to infrastructure. To better understand and assess the future stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, we used a laterally coupled version of the one-dimensional CryoGrid3 land surface model to simulate the thermal regimes of the railway subgrade under current climate conditions. By modeling ground subsidence (i.e., by simulating the melting of excess ice) we provide estimates of future subgrade stability under low (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6]) and high (RCP8.5) climate warming scenarios. Our modeled results reveal satisfactory performance with respect to the comparison of measured and modeled ground thermal regimes. Under current climate conditions, we infer that mostly thaw-stable conditions as maximum thaw depths do not reach the embankment base. The sunny side of the embankment (southeast-facing) reveals being more vulnerable to suffering from thaw settlement or thermal erosion than the shady side (northwest-facing). The extent of future railway failure due to thawing permafrost will depend on the magnitude of the warming. For conditions typical of Beiluhe (situated on continuous permafrost in the central Tibetan Plateau), the railway embankment might largely maintain safe operation until the end of the century under a scenario of climate stabilization. In contrast, under strong warming the railway subgrade is likely to destabilize from the 2030s onwards and embankment subsidence is initiated at mid-century through the melting of excess ice. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Ice permafrost Thermokarst Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Cold Regions Science and Technology 212 103881 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Infrastructure stability Permafrost degradation Qinghai-Tibet Railway |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Infrastructure stability Permafrost degradation Qinghai-Tibet Railway Chen, Rui von Deimling, Thomas Schneider Boike, Julia Wu, Qingbai Langer, Moritz Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
topic_facet |
Climate change Infrastructure stability Permafrost degradation Qinghai-Tibet Railway |
description |
With global warming and its amplified effect on the Tibetan Plateau, the permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau has been significantly degraded, manifested by decreased permafrost thickness, increased active layer thickness, thermokarst, and surface subsidence, causing severe damage to infrastructure. To better understand and assess the future stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, we used a laterally coupled version of the one-dimensional CryoGrid3 land surface model to simulate the thermal regimes of the railway subgrade under current climate conditions. By modeling ground subsidence (i.e., by simulating the melting of excess ice) we provide estimates of future subgrade stability under low (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 [RCP2.6]) and high (RCP8.5) climate warming scenarios. Our modeled results reveal satisfactory performance with respect to the comparison of measured and modeled ground thermal regimes. Under current climate conditions, we infer that mostly thaw-stable conditions as maximum thaw depths do not reach the embankment base. The sunny side of the embankment (southeast-facing) reveals being more vulnerable to suffering from thaw settlement or thermal erosion than the shady side (northwest-facing). The extent of future railway failure due to thawing permafrost will depend on the magnitude of the warming. For conditions typical of Beiluhe (situated on continuous permafrost in the central Tibetan Plateau), the railway embankment might largely maintain safe operation until the end of the century under a scenario of climate stabilization. In contrast, under strong warming the railway subgrade is likely to destabilize from the 2030s onwards and embankment subsidence is initiated at mid-century through the melting of excess ice. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Rui von Deimling, Thomas Schneider Boike, Julia Wu, Qingbai Langer, Moritz |
author_facet |
Chen, Rui von Deimling, Thomas Schneider Boike, Julia Wu, Qingbai Langer, Moritz |
author_sort |
Chen, Rui |
title |
Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
title_short |
Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
title_full |
Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change |
title_sort |
simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the tibetan plateau under climate change |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85159316926&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost Thermokarst |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Ice permafrost Thermokarst |
op_source |
Chen , R , von Deimling , T S , Boike , J , Wu , Q & Langer , M 2023 , ' Simulating the thermal regime of a railway embankment structure on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change ' , Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol. 212 , 103881 , pp. 1-12 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d53b2c74-bd9d-4b01-8d0f-3e1b666cb6b7 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2023.103881 |
container_title |
Cold Regions Science and Technology |
container_volume |
212 |
container_start_page |
103881 |
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1802641545339338752 |