Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial le...
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2024
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec 2024-10-20T14:07:00+00:00 Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin 2024-05-17 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess de Winter , N J , Tindall , J , Johnson , A L A , Goudsmit-Harzevoort , B , Wichern , N , Kaskes , P , Claeys , P , Huygen , F , van Leeuwen , S , Metcalfe , B , Bakker , P , Goolaerts , S , Wesselingh , F & Ziegler , M 2024 , ' Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world ' , Science advances , vol. 10 , no. 20 , eadl6717 , pp. 1-10 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 article 2024 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 2024-10-10T00:22:44Z Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Arctic Science Advances 10 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
description |
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin |
spellingShingle |
de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
author_facet |
de Winter, Niels J. Tindall, Julia Johnson, Andrew L.A. Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara Wichern, Nina Kaskes, Pim Claeys, Philippe Huygen, Fynn van Leeuwen, Sonja Metcalfe, Brett Bakker, Pepijn Goolaerts, Stijn Wesselingh, Frank Ziegler, Martin |
author_sort |
de Winter, Niels J. |
title |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_short |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_full |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_fullStr |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world |
title_sort |
amplified seasonality in western europe in a warmer world |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
de Winter , N J , Tindall , J , Johnson , A L A , Goudsmit-Harzevoort , B , Wichern , N , Kaskes , P , Claeys , P , Huygen , F , van Leeuwen , S , Metcalfe , B , Bakker , P , Goolaerts , S , Wesselingh , F & Ziegler , M 2024 , ' Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world ' , Science advances , vol. 10 , no. 20 , eadl6717 , pp. 1-10 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
20 |
_version_ |
1813445972699643904 |