Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world
Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial le...
Published in: | Science Advances |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/d478f089-42c2-490f-b64f-e14e83527aec http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85193372426&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
Summary: | Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future. |
---|