Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes
Reconstructing historical climate change from deep ground temperature measurements in cold regions is often complicated by the presence of permafrost. Existing methods are typically unable to account for latent heat effects due to the freezing and thawing of the active layer. In this work, we propos...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
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2024
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac 2024-10-13T14:10:12+00:00 Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes Groenke, Brian Langer, Moritz Miesner, Frederieke Westermann, Sebastian Gallego, Guillermo Boike, Julia 2024-07 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Groenke , B , Langer , M , Miesner , F , Westermann , S , Gallego , G & Boike , J 2024 , ' Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , vol. 129 , no. 7 , e2024JF007734 , pp. 1-18 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 bayesian borehole climate reconstruction inversion numerical modeling permafrost article 2024 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 2024-09-26T14:52:12Z Reconstructing historical climate change from deep ground temperature measurements in cold regions is often complicated by the presence of permafrost. Existing methods are typically unable to account for latent heat effects due to the freezing and thawing of the active layer. In this work, we propose a novel method for reconstructing historical ground surface temperature (GST) from borehole temperature measurements that accounts for seasonal thawing and refreezing of the active layer. Our method couples a recently developed fast numerical modeling scheme for two-phase heat transport in permafrost soils with an ensemble-based method for approximate Bayesian inference. We evaluate our method on two synthetic test cases covering both cold and warm permafrost conditions as well as using real data from a 100 m deep borehole on Sardakh Island in northeastern Siberia. Our analysis of the Sardakh Island borehole data confirms previous findings that GST in the region have likely risen by 5–9°C between the pre-industrial period of 1750–1855 and 2012. We also show that latent heat effects due to seasonal freeze-thaw have a substantial impact on the resulting reconstructed surface temperatures. We find that neglecting the thermal dynamics of the active layer can result in biases of roughly −1°C in cold conditions (i.e., mean annual ground temperature below −5°C) and as much as −2.6°C in warmer conditions where substantial active layer thickening (>200 cm) has occurred. Our results highlight the importance of considering seasonal freeze-thaw in GST reconstructions from permafrost boreholes. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Siberia Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 129 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
bayesian borehole climate reconstruction inversion numerical modeling permafrost |
spellingShingle |
bayesian borehole climate reconstruction inversion numerical modeling permafrost Groenke, Brian Langer, Moritz Miesner, Frederieke Westermann, Sebastian Gallego, Guillermo Boike, Julia Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
topic_facet |
bayesian borehole climate reconstruction inversion numerical modeling permafrost |
description |
Reconstructing historical climate change from deep ground temperature measurements in cold regions is often complicated by the presence of permafrost. Existing methods are typically unable to account for latent heat effects due to the freezing and thawing of the active layer. In this work, we propose a novel method for reconstructing historical ground surface temperature (GST) from borehole temperature measurements that accounts for seasonal thawing and refreezing of the active layer. Our method couples a recently developed fast numerical modeling scheme for two-phase heat transport in permafrost soils with an ensemble-based method for approximate Bayesian inference. We evaluate our method on two synthetic test cases covering both cold and warm permafrost conditions as well as using real data from a 100 m deep borehole on Sardakh Island in northeastern Siberia. Our analysis of the Sardakh Island borehole data confirms previous findings that GST in the region have likely risen by 5–9°C between the pre-industrial period of 1750–1855 and 2012. We also show that latent heat effects due to seasonal freeze-thaw have a substantial impact on the resulting reconstructed surface temperatures. We find that neglecting the thermal dynamics of the active layer can result in biases of roughly −1°C in cold conditions (i.e., mean annual ground temperature below −5°C) and as much as −2.6°C in warmer conditions where substantial active layer thickening (>200 cm) has occurred. Our results highlight the importance of considering seasonal freeze-thaw in GST reconstructions from permafrost boreholes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Groenke, Brian Langer, Moritz Miesner, Frederieke Westermann, Sebastian Gallego, Guillermo Boike, Julia |
author_facet |
Groenke, Brian Langer, Moritz Miesner, Frederieke Westermann, Sebastian Gallego, Guillermo Boike, Julia |
author_sort |
Groenke, Brian |
title |
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
title_short |
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
title_full |
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
title_fullStr |
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes |
title_sort |
robust reconstruction of historical climate change from permafrost boreholes |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/af35c255-4c3a-431f-a53c-a247e369a5ac http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85197717500&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
permafrost Siberia |
genre_facet |
permafrost Siberia |
op_source |
Groenke , B , Langer , M , Miesner , F , Westermann , S , Gallego , G & Boike , J 2024 , ' Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes ' , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface , vol. 129 , no. 7 , e2024JF007734 , pp. 1-18 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JF007734 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface |
container_volume |
129 |
container_issue |
7 |
_version_ |
1812817369004769280 |