The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations
Air quality management is strongly driven by legislative aspects related to the exceedance of air quality limit values. Here, we use the Norwegian Climate Centre’s Earth System Model to assess the impact of a future scenario of maximum feasible aerosol emission abatement and increasing greenhouse ga...
Published in: | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
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2018
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 2024-09-15T18:23:02+00:00 The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations Messori, Gabriele van Wees, Dave Pausata, Francesco S.R. Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Hannachi, Abdel Dentener, Frank J. 2018-06-01 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Messori , G , van Wees , D , Pausata , F S R , Acosta Navarro , J C , Hannachi , A & Dentener , F J 2018 , ' The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations ' , Tellus, Series B : Chemical and Physical Meteorology , vol. 70 , no. 1 , pp. 1-22 . https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 air quality atmospheric circulation maximum feasible reduction particulate matter urban pollution article 2018 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 2024-07-03T23:47:27Z Air quality management is strongly driven by legislative aspects related to the exceedance of air quality limit values. Here, we use the Norwegian Climate Centre’s Earth System Model to assess the impact of a future scenario of maximum feasible aerosol emission abatement and increasing greenhouse gases (RCP4.5) on urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Europe. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations are assessed using a novel downscaling method which allows us to compute exceedances of current and planned air quality thresholds. For the latter, we assume that future ambitious emission reductions are likely to be accompanied by stricter air quality thresholds. The changes in PM 2.5 concentrations are discussed in the context of the large-scale atmospheric changes observed relative to the present-day climate. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation mean state in the future, combined with a large eastward shift of both North Atlantic sea-level pressure centres of action. This is associated with more frequent mid-latitude blocking and a northward shift of the jet stream. These changes favour higher than expected anthropogenic urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Southern Europe, while they have the opposite effect on the northern half of the continent. In the future scenario, PM concentrations in substantial parts of Southern Europe are found to exceed the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline daily limit of 25 μg/m 3 on 25 to over 50 days per year, and annual guidelines of 10 µg/m 3 on more than 80% of the 30 years analysed in our study. We conclude that alterations in atmospheric circulation in the future, induced by stringent maximum feasible air pollution mitigation as well as GHG emissions, will negatively influence the effectiveness of these emission abatements over large parts of Europe. This has important implications for future air quality policies. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology 70 1 1 22 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
air quality atmospheric circulation maximum feasible reduction particulate matter urban pollution |
spellingShingle |
air quality atmospheric circulation maximum feasible reduction particulate matter urban pollution Messori, Gabriele van Wees, Dave Pausata, Francesco S.R. Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Hannachi, Abdel Dentener, Frank J. The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
topic_facet |
air quality atmospheric circulation maximum feasible reduction particulate matter urban pollution |
description |
Air quality management is strongly driven by legislative aspects related to the exceedance of air quality limit values. Here, we use the Norwegian Climate Centre’s Earth System Model to assess the impact of a future scenario of maximum feasible aerosol emission abatement and increasing greenhouse gases (RCP4.5) on urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Europe. Daily PM 2.5 concentrations are assessed using a novel downscaling method which allows us to compute exceedances of current and planned air quality thresholds. For the latter, we assume that future ambitious emission reductions are likely to be accompanied by stricter air quality thresholds. The changes in PM 2.5 concentrations are discussed in the context of the large-scale atmospheric changes observed relative to the present-day climate. Our results show a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation mean state in the future, combined with a large eastward shift of both North Atlantic sea-level pressure centres of action. This is associated with more frequent mid-latitude blocking and a northward shift of the jet stream. These changes favour higher than expected anthropogenic urban PM 2.5 concentrations in Southern Europe, while they have the opposite effect on the northern half of the continent. In the future scenario, PM concentrations in substantial parts of Southern Europe are found to exceed the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline daily limit of 25 μg/m 3 on 25 to over 50 days per year, and annual guidelines of 10 µg/m 3 on more than 80% of the 30 years analysed in our study. We conclude that alterations in atmospheric circulation in the future, induced by stringent maximum feasible air pollution mitigation as well as GHG emissions, will negatively influence the effectiveness of these emission abatements over large parts of Europe. This has important implications for future air quality policies. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Messori, Gabriele van Wees, Dave Pausata, Francesco S.R. Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Hannachi, Abdel Dentener, Frank J. |
author_facet |
Messori, Gabriele van Wees, Dave Pausata, Francesco S.R. Acosta Navarro, Juan C. Hannachi, Abdel Dentener, Frank J. |
author_sort |
Messori, Gabriele |
title |
The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
title_short |
The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
title_full |
The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
title_fullStr |
The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations |
title_sort |
impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the euro-atlantic sector on urban pm 2.5 concentrations |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85048057150&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Messori , G , van Wees , D , Pausata , F S R , Acosta Navarro , J C , Hannachi , A & Dentener , F J 2018 , ' The impact of future atmospheric circulation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector on urban PM 2.5 concentrations ' , Tellus, Series B : Chemical and Physical Meteorology , vol. 70 , no. 1 , pp. 1-22 . https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/9109d556-c553-4875-b35a-d6f9ec095c59 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000889.2018.1468704 |
container_title |
Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
container_volume |
70 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
22 |
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1810463149166428160 |