Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with highamplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can...
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2018
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a 2024-09-30T14:30:29+00:00 Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim 2018-10-31 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Mann , M E , Rahmstorf , S , Kornhuber , K , Steinman , B A , Miller , S K , Petri , S & Coumou , D 2018 , ' Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : The role of quasi-resonant amplification ' , Science advances , vol. 4 , no. 10 , eaat3272 , pp. 1-10 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2018 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 2024-09-12T00:17:36Z Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with highamplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ∼50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Arctic Science Advances 4 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
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ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with highamplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by ∼50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim |
author_facet |
Mann, Michael E. Rahmstorf, Stefan Kornhuber, Kai Steinman, Byron A. Miller, Sonya K. Petri, Stefan Coumou, Dim |
author_sort |
Mann, Michael E. |
title |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_short |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_full |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:The role of quasi-resonant amplification |
title_sort |
projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events:the role of quasi-resonant amplification |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85055880788&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Mann , M E , Rahmstorf , S , Kornhuber , K , Steinman , B A , Miller , S K , Petri , S & Coumou , D 2018 , ' Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events : The role of quasi-resonant amplification ' , Science advances , vol. 4 , no. 10 , eaat3272 , pp. 1-10 . https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/8f80b84f-bb75-423b-b4e2-62fee4b3601a |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
10 |
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1811635407492743168 |