Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2016
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f |
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
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/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water Abbott, B.W. Jones, J.B. Schuur, E.A.G. Chapin III, F.S. Bowden, W.B. Bret-Harte, M.S. Epstein, H.E. Flannigan, M.D. Harms, T.K. Hollingsworth, T.N. Mack, M.C. McGuire, A.D. Natali, S.M. Rocha, A.V. Tank, S.E. Turetsky, M.R. Vonk, J.E. Wickland, K.P. Aiken, G.R. Alexander, H.D. Amon, R.M.W. Benscoter, B.W. Bergeron, Y. Bishop, K. Blarquez, O. Bond-Lamberty, B. Breen, A.L. Buffam, I. Cai, Y. Carcaillet, C. Carey, S.K. Chen, J.M. Chen, H.Y.H. Christensen, T.R. Cooper, L.W. Cornelissen, J.H.C. de Groot, W.J. DeLuca, T.H. Dorrepaal, E. Fetcher, N. Finlay, J.C. Forbes, B.C. French, N.H.F. Gauthier, S. Girardin, M.P. Goetz, S.J. Goldammer, J.G. Gough, L. Grogan, P. Guo, L. Higuera, P.E. Hinzman, L. Hu, F.S. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E.E. Jandt, R. Johnstone, J.F. Karlsson, J. Kasischke, E.S. Kattner, G. Kelly, R. Keuper, F. Kling, G.W. Kortelainen, P. Kouki, J. Kuhry, P. Laudon, H. Laurion, I. Macdonald, R.W. Mann, P.J. Martikainen, P.J. McClelland, J.W. Molau, U. Oberbauer, S.F. Olefeldt, D. Paré, D. Parisien, M.-A. Payette, S. Peng, C. Pokrovsky, O.S. Rastetter, E.B. Raymond, P.A. Raynolds, M.K. Rein, G. Reynolds, J.F. Robards, M. Rogers, B.M. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Schmidt, I.K. Shvidenko, A. Sky, J. Spencer, R.G.M. Starr, G. Striegl, R.G. Teisserenc, R. Tranvik, L.J. Virtanen, T. Welker, J.M. Zimov, S. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, B.W. Jones, J.B. Schuur, E.A.G. Chapin III, F.S. Bowden, W.B. Bret-Harte, M.S. Epstein, H.E. Flannigan, M.D. Harms, T.K. Hollingsworth, T.N. Mack, M.C. McGuire, A.D. Natali, S.M. Rocha, A.V. Tank, S.E. Turetsky, M.R. Vonk, J.E. Wickland, K.P. Aiken, G.R. Alexander, H.D. Amon, R.M.W. Benscoter, B.W. Bergeron, Y. Bishop, K. Blarquez, O. Bond-Lamberty, B. Breen, A.L. Buffam, I. Cai, Y. Carcaillet, C. Carey, S.K. Chen, J.M. Chen, H.Y.H. Christensen, T.R. Cooper, L.W. Cornelissen, J.H.C. de Groot, W.J. DeLuca, T.H. Dorrepaal, E. Fetcher, N. Finlay, J.C. Forbes, B.C. French, N.H.F. Gauthier, S. Girardin, M.P. Goetz, S.J. Goldammer, J.G. Gough, L. Grogan, P. Guo, L. Higuera, P.E. Hinzman, L. Hu, F.S. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E.E. Jandt, R. Johnstone, J.F. Karlsson, J. Kasischke, E.S. Kattner, G. Kelly, R. Keuper, F. Kling, G.W. Kortelainen, P. Kouki, J. Kuhry, P. Laudon, H. Laurion, I. Macdonald, R.W. Mann, P.J. Martikainen, P.J. McClelland, J.W. Molau, U. Oberbauer, S.F. Olefeldt, D. Paré, D. Parisien, M.-A. Payette, S. Peng, C. Pokrovsky, O.S. Rastetter, E.B. Raymond, P.A. Raynolds, M.K. Rein, G. Reynolds, J.F. Robards, M. Rogers, B.M. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Schmidt, I.K. Shvidenko, A. Sky, J. Spencer, R.G.M. Starr, G. Striegl, R.G. Teisserenc, R. Tranvik, L.J. Virtanen, T. Welker, J.M. Zimov, S. |
author_facet |
Abbott, B.W. Jones, J.B. Schuur, E.A.G. Chapin III, F.S. Bowden, W.B. Bret-Harte, M.S. Epstein, H.E. Flannigan, M.D. Harms, T.K. Hollingsworth, T.N. Mack, M.C. McGuire, A.D. Natali, S.M. Rocha, A.V. Tank, S.E. Turetsky, M.R. Vonk, J.E. Wickland, K.P. Aiken, G.R. Alexander, H.D. Amon, R.M.W. Benscoter, B.W. Bergeron, Y. Bishop, K. Blarquez, O. Bond-Lamberty, B. Breen, A.L. Buffam, I. Cai, Y. Carcaillet, C. Carey, S.K. Chen, J.M. Chen, H.Y.H. Christensen, T.R. Cooper, L.W. Cornelissen, J.H.C. de Groot, W.J. DeLuca, T.H. Dorrepaal, E. Fetcher, N. Finlay, J.C. Forbes, B.C. French, N.H.F. Gauthier, S. Girardin, M.P. Goetz, S.J. Goldammer, J.G. Gough, L. Grogan, P. Guo, L. Higuera, P.E. Hinzman, L. Hu, F.S. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E.E. Jandt, R. Johnstone, J.F. Karlsson, J. Kasischke, E.S. Kattner, G. Kelly, R. Keuper, F. Kling, G.W. Kortelainen, P. Kouki, J. Kuhry, P. Laudon, H. Laurion, I. Macdonald, R.W. Mann, P.J. Martikainen, P.J. McClelland, J.W. Molau, U. Oberbauer, S.F. Olefeldt, D. Paré, D. Parisien, M.-A. Payette, S. Peng, C. Pokrovsky, O.S. Rastetter, E.B. Raymond, P.A. Raynolds, M.K. Rein, G. Reynolds, J.F. Robards, M. Rogers, B.M. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Schmidt, I.K. Shvidenko, A. Sky, J. Spencer, R.G.M. Starr, G. Striegl, R.G. Teisserenc, R. Tranvik, L.J. Virtanen, T. Welker, J.M. Zimov, S. |
author_sort |
Abbott, B.W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
Abbott , B W , Jones , J B , Schuur , E A G , Chapin III , F S , Bowden , W B , Bret-Harte , M S , Epstein , H E , Flannigan , M D , Harms , T K , Hollingsworth , T N , Mack , M C , McGuire , A D , Natali , S M , Rocha , A V , Tank , S E , Turetsky , M R , Vonk , J E , Wickland , K P , Aiken , G R , Alexander , H D , Amon , R M W , Benscoter , B W , Bergeron , Y , Bishop , K , Blarquez , O , Bond-Lamberty , B , Breen , A L , Buffam , I , Cai , Y , Carcaillet , C , Carey , S K , Chen , J M , Chen , H Y H , Christensen , T R , Cooper , L W , Cornelissen , J H C , de Groot , W J , DeLuca , T H , Dorrepaal , E , Fetcher , N , Finlay , J C , Forbes , B C , French , N H F , Gauthier , S , Girardin , M P , Goetz , S J , Goldammer , J G , Gough , L , Grogan , P , Guo , L , Higuera , P E , Hinzman , L , Hu , F S , Hugelius , G , Jafarov , E E , Jandt , R , Johnstone , J F , Karlsson , J , Kasischke , E S , Kattner , G , Kelly , R , Keuper , F , Kling , G W , Kortelainen , P , Kouki , J , Kuhry , P , Laudon , H , Laurion , I , Macdonald , R W , Mann , P J , Martikainen , P J , McClelland , J W , Molau , U , Oberbauer , S F , Olefeldt , D , Paré , D , Parisien , M-A , Payette , S , Peng , C , Pokrovsky , O S , Rastetter , E B , Raymond , P A , Raynolds , M K , Rein , G , Reynolds , J F , Robards , M , Rogers , B M , Schädel , C , Schaefer , K , Schmidt , I K , Shvidenko , A , Sky , J , Spencer , R G M , Starr , G , Striegl , R G , Teisserenc , R , Tranvik , L J , Virtanen , T , Welker , J M & Zimov , S 2016 , ' Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , no. 3 , 034014 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
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container_start_page |
034014 |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f 2024-10-13T14:05:11+00:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment Abbott, B.W. Jones, J.B. Schuur, E.A.G. Chapin III, F.S. Bowden, W.B. Bret-Harte, M.S. Epstein, H.E. Flannigan, M.D. Harms, T.K. Hollingsworth, T.N. Mack, M.C. McGuire, A.D. Natali, S.M. Rocha, A.V. Tank, S.E. Turetsky, M.R. Vonk, J.E. Wickland, K.P. Aiken, G.R. Alexander, H.D. Amon, R.M.W. Benscoter, B.W. Bergeron, Y. Bishop, K. Blarquez, O. Bond-Lamberty, B. Breen, A.L. Buffam, I. Cai, Y. Carcaillet, C. Carey, S.K. Chen, J.M. Chen, H.Y.H. Christensen, T.R. Cooper, L.W. Cornelissen, J.H.C. de Groot, W.J. DeLuca, T.H. Dorrepaal, E. Fetcher, N. Finlay, J.C. Forbes, B.C. French, N.H.F. Gauthier, S. Girardin, M.P. Goetz, S.J. Goldammer, J.G. Gough, L. Grogan, P. Guo, L. Higuera, P.E. Hinzman, L. Hu, F.S. Hugelius, G. Jafarov, E.E. Jandt, R. Johnstone, J.F. Karlsson, J. Kasischke, E.S. Kattner, G. Kelly, R. Keuper, F. Kling, G.W. Kortelainen, P. Kouki, J. Kuhry, P. Laudon, H. Laurion, I. Macdonald, R.W. Mann, P.J. Martikainen, P.J. McClelland, J.W. Molau, U. Oberbauer, S.F. Olefeldt, D. Paré, D. Parisien, M.-A. Payette, S. Peng, C. Pokrovsky, O.S. Rastetter, E.B. Raymond, P.A. Raynolds, M.K. Rein, G. Reynolds, J.F. Robards, M. Rogers, B.M. Schädel, C. Schaefer, K. Schmidt, I.K. Shvidenko, A. Sky, J. Spencer, R.G.M. Starr, G. Striegl, R.G. Teisserenc, R. Tranvik, L.J. Virtanen, T. Welker, J.M. Zimov, S. 2016 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/86c6a432-4520-41cd-acbd-47f9a3d87e4f eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Abbott , B W , Jones , J B , Schuur , E A G , Chapin III , F S , Bowden , W B , Bret-Harte , M S , Epstein , H E , Flannigan , M D , Harms , T K , Hollingsworth , T N , Mack , M C , McGuire , A D , Natali , S M , Rocha , A V , Tank , S E , Turetsky , M R , Vonk , J E , Wickland , K P , Aiken , G R , Alexander , H D , Amon , R M W , Benscoter , B W , Bergeron , Y , Bishop , K , Blarquez , O , Bond-Lamberty , B , Breen , A L , Buffam , I , Cai , Y , Carcaillet , C , Carey , S K , Chen , J M , Chen , H Y H , Christensen , T R , Cooper , L W , Cornelissen , J H C , de Groot , W J , DeLuca , T H , Dorrepaal , E , Fetcher , N , Finlay , J C , Forbes , B C , French , N H F , Gauthier , S , Girardin , M P , Goetz , S J , Goldammer , J G , Gough , L , Grogan , P , Guo , L , Higuera , P E , Hinzman , L , Hu , F S , Hugelius , G , Jafarov , E E , Jandt , R , Johnstone , J F , Karlsson , J , Kasischke , E S , Kattner , G , Kelly , R , Keuper , F , Kling , G W , Kortelainen , P , Kouki , J , Kuhry , P , Laudon , H , Laurion , I , Macdonald , R W , Mann , P J , Martikainen , P J , McClelland , J W , Molau , U , Oberbauer , S F , Olefeldt , D , Paré , D , Parisien , M-A , Payette , S , Peng , C , Pokrovsky , O S , Rastetter , E B , Raymond , P A , Raynolds , M K , Rein , G , Reynolds , J F , Robards , M , Rogers , B M , Schädel , C , Schaefer , K , Schmidt , I K , Shvidenko , A , Sky , J , Spencer , R G M , Starr , G , Striegl , R G , Teisserenc , R , Tranvik , L J , Virtanen , T , Welker , J M & Zimov , S 2016 , ' Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment ' , Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , no. 3 , 034014 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water article 2016 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2024-10-03T00:23:17Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |