Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation
Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remai...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 2024-09-15T17:50:55+00:00 Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation Harwood, Nathanael Hall, Richard DI Capua, Giorgia Russell, Andrew Tucker, Allan 2021-03-01 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Harwood , N , Hall , R , DI Capua , G , Russell , A & Tucker , A 2021 , ' Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 34 , no. 6 , pp. 2319-2335 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 Algorithms Arctic Atmospheric circulation Machine learning North Atlantic Ocean Teleconnections /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water article 2021 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 2024-08-29T00:18:49Z Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic-midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, dynamic Bayesian networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyze North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly time scales during the winter months of the years 1981-2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers. A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly time scales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents-Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, while the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Journal of Climate 34 6 2319 2335 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
op_collection_id |
ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
Algorithms Arctic Atmospheric circulation Machine learning North Atlantic Ocean Teleconnections /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
spellingShingle |
Algorithms Arctic Atmospheric circulation Machine learning North Atlantic Ocean Teleconnections /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water Harwood, Nathanael Hall, Richard DI Capua, Giorgia Russell, Andrew Tucker, Allan Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
topic_facet |
Algorithms Arctic Atmospheric circulation Machine learning North Atlantic Ocean Teleconnections /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
description |
Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic-midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, dynamic Bayesian networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyze North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly time scales during the winter months of the years 1981-2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers. A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly time scales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents-Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, while the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly time scales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Harwood, Nathanael Hall, Richard DI Capua, Giorgia Russell, Andrew Tucker, Allan |
author_facet |
Harwood, Nathanael Hall, Richard DI Capua, Giorgia Russell, Andrew Tucker, Allan |
author_sort |
Harwood, Nathanael |
title |
Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
title_short |
Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
title_full |
Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
title_fullStr |
Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation |
title_sort |
using bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude north atlantic circulation |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103215501&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
Harwood , N , Hall , R , DI Capua , G , Russell , A & Tucker , A 2021 , ' Using Bayesian networks to investigate the influence of subseasonal arctic variability on midlatitude North Atlantic circulation ' , Journal of Climate , vol. 34 , no. 6 , pp. 2319-2335 . https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/7719b3f7-6929-4940-954e-91088500e0a5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0369.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2319 |
op_container_end_page |
2335 |
_version_ |
1810292723045892096 |