Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon
Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective avai...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/225483485/Future_increases_in_Arctic_lightning_and_fire_risk_for_permafrost_carbon.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac 2024-09-30T14:28:00+00:00 Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon Chen, Yang Romps, David M. Seeley, Jacob T. Veraverbeke, Sander Riley, William J. Mekonnen, Zelalem A. Randerson, James T. 2021-05 application/pdf https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/225483485/Future_increases_in_Arctic_lightning_and_fire_risk_for_permafrost_carbon.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Chen , Y , Romps , D M , Seeley , J T , Veraverbeke , S , Riley , W J , Mekonnen , Z A & Randerson , J T 2021 , ' Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon ' , Nature Climate Change , vol. 11 , no. 5 , pp. 404-410 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action article 2021 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y 2024-09-12T00:17:37Z Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil carbon release. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Arctic Nature Climate Change 11 5 404 410 |
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Open Polar |
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
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ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action Chen, Yang Romps, David M. Seeley, Jacob T. Veraverbeke, Sander Riley, William J. Mekonnen, Zelalem A. Randerson, James T. Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action name=SDG 13 - Climate Action |
description |
Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil carbon release. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen, Yang Romps, David M. Seeley, Jacob T. Veraverbeke, Sander Riley, William J. Mekonnen, Zelalem A. Randerson, James T. |
author_facet |
Chen, Yang Romps, David M. Seeley, Jacob T. Veraverbeke, Sander Riley, William J. Mekonnen, Zelalem A. Randerson, James T. |
author_sort |
Chen, Yang |
title |
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
title_short |
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
title_full |
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
title_fullStr |
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
title_sort |
future increases in arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac https://research.vu.nl/ws/files/225483485/Future_increases_in_Arctic_lightning_and_fire_risk_for_permafrost_carbon.pdf http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85103614035&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Climate change permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Chen , Y , Romps , D M , Seeley , J T , Veraverbeke , S , Riley , W J , Mekonnen , Z A & Randerson , J T 2021 , ' Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon ' , Nature Climate Change , vol. 11 , no. 5 , pp. 404-410 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/5d9d7857-98f5-4339-bb11-a05d9d321fac |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
404 |
op_container_end_page |
410 |
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1811633891498262528 |