Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for 6-Month Societal Costs in Older Community Care-Recipients in Multiple Countries; the IBenC Study

• Published in: Health Services Insights
• Main Authors: van Lier, Lisanne I., Bosmans, Judith E., van der Roest, Henriëtte G., Heymans, Martijn W., Garms-Homolová, Vjenka, Declercq, Anja, V Jónsson, Pálmi, van Hout, Hein P.J.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 2020
• Subjects: elderly people; Linear Mixed Models; Prediction model; societal costs; Iceland
• Online Access: https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/4cf3a8b7-c0bb-46e3-be61-e609f9c935a4; https://doi.org/10.1177/1178632920980462; https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/4cf3a8b7-c0bb-46e3-be61-e609f9c935a4; http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85097974074&partnerID=8YFLogxK; http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85097974074&partnerID=8YFLogxK

This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model of societal costs during a period of 6-months in older community care-recipients across multiple European countries. Participants were older community care-recipients from 5 European countries. The outcome measure was mean 6-months total societal costs of resource utilisation (healthcare and informal care). Potential predictors included sociodemographic characteristics, functional limitations, clinical conditions, and diseases/disorders. The model was developed by performing Linear Mixed Models with a random intercept for the effect of country and validated by an internal-external validation procedure. Living alone, caregiver distress, (I)ADL impairment, required level of care support, health instability, presence of pain, behavioural problems, urinary incontinence and multimorbidity significantly predicted societal costs during 6 months. The model explained 32% of the variation within societal costs and showed good calibration in Iceland, Finland and Germany. Minor model adaptations improved model performance in The Netherland and Italy. The results can provide a valuable orientation for policymakers to better understand cost development among older community care-recipients. Despite substantial differences of countries’ care systems, a validated cross-national set of key predictors could be identified.