A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera
A complete understanding of past El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations is important for the future predictions of regional climate using climate models. One approach to reconstructing past ENSO dynamics uses planktonic foraminifera as recorders of past climate to assess past spatio-tempo...
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2020
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Online Access: | https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
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ftvuamstcris:oai:research.vu.nl:publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 2024-06-23T07:56:15+00:00 A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera Metcalfe, Brett Lougheed, Bryan C. Waelbroeck, Claire Roche, DIdier M. 2020-05-20 https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK eng eng https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Metcalfe , B , Lougheed , B C , Waelbroeck , C & Roche , DI M 2020 , ' A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera ' , Climate of the Past , vol. 16 , no. 3 , 50 , pp. 885-910 . https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water article 2020 ftvuamstcris https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 2024-06-06T00:19:35Z A complete understanding of past El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations is important for the future predictions of regional climate using climate models. One approach to reconstructing past ENSO dynamics uses planktonic foraminifera as recorders of past climate to assess past spatio-temporal changes in upper ocean conditions. In this paper, we utilise a model of planktonic foraminifera populations, Foraminifera as Modelled Entities (FAME), to forward model the potential monthly average 18Oc and temperature signal proxy values for Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei from input variables covering the period of the instrumental record. We test whether the modelled foraminifera population 18Oc and Tc associated with El Niño events statistically differ from the values associated with other climate states. Provided the assumptions of the model are correct, our results indicate that the values of El Niño events can be differentiated from other climate states using these species. Our model computes the proxy values of foraminifera in the water, suggesting that, in theory, water locations for a large portion of the tropical Pacific should be suitable for differentiating El Niño events from other climate states. However, in practice it may not be possible to differentiate climate states in the sediment record. Specifically, comparison of our model results with the sedimentological features of the Pacific Ocean shows that a large portion of the hydrographically/ecologically suitable water regions coincide with low sediment accumulation rate at the sea floor and/or of sea floor that lie below threshold water depths for calcite preservation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Planktonic foraminifera Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal Pacific Climate of the Past 16 3 885 910 |
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Open Polar |
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Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (VU): Research Portal |
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ftvuamstcris |
language |
English |
topic |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
spellingShingle |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water Metcalfe, Brett Lougheed, Bryan C. Waelbroeck, Claire Roche, DIdier M. A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
topic_facet |
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/life_below_water name=SDG 14 - Life Below Water |
description |
A complete understanding of past El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations is important for the future predictions of regional climate using climate models. One approach to reconstructing past ENSO dynamics uses planktonic foraminifera as recorders of past climate to assess past spatio-temporal changes in upper ocean conditions. In this paper, we utilise a model of planktonic foraminifera populations, Foraminifera as Modelled Entities (FAME), to forward model the potential monthly average 18Oc and temperature signal proxy values for Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides sacculifer, and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei from input variables covering the period of the instrumental record. We test whether the modelled foraminifera population 18Oc and Tc associated with El Niño events statistically differ from the values associated with other climate states. Provided the assumptions of the model are correct, our results indicate that the values of El Niño events can be differentiated from other climate states using these species. Our model computes the proxy values of foraminifera in the water, suggesting that, in theory, water locations for a large portion of the tropical Pacific should be suitable for differentiating El Niño events from other climate states. However, in practice it may not be possible to differentiate climate states in the sediment record. Specifically, comparison of our model results with the sedimentological features of the Pacific Ocean shows that a large portion of the hydrographically/ecologically suitable water regions coincide with low sediment accumulation rate at the sea floor and/or of sea floor that lie below threshold water depths for calcite preservation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Metcalfe, Brett Lougheed, Bryan C. Waelbroeck, Claire Roche, DIdier M. |
author_facet |
Metcalfe, Brett Lougheed, Bryan C. Waelbroeck, Claire Roche, DIdier M. |
author_sort |
Metcalfe, Brett |
title |
A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
title_short |
A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
title_full |
A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
title_fullStr |
A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
title_full_unstemmed |
A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera |
title_sort |
proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting enso signal from tropical pacific planktonic foraminifera |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 https://hdl.handle.net/1871.1/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85085507966&partnerID=8YFLogxK |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Planktonic foraminifera |
genre_facet |
Planktonic foraminifera |
op_source |
Metcalfe , B , Lougheed , B C , Waelbroeck , C & Roche , DI M 2020 , ' A proxy modelling approach to assess the potential of extracting ENSO signal from tropical Pacific planktonic foraminifera ' , Climate of the Past , vol. 16 , no. 3 , 50 , pp. 885-910 . https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 |
op_relation |
https://research.vu.nl/en/publications/33ab90e9-8e47-487a-aa89-55f8b97605a1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-885-2020 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
885 |
op_container_end_page |
910 |
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1802649229429047296 |