Future development trends in electricity demand

• Main Authors: Koreneff, Göran, Ruska, Maija, Kiviluoma, Juha, Shemeikka, Jari, Lemström, Bettina, Alanen, Raili, Koljonen, Tiina
• Format: Book
• Language: English
• Published: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland 2009
• Subjects: electricity demand; load curves; peak load; electric vehicle; heat pump; /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy; SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy; /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action; SDG 13 - Climate Action; Norway; Iceland
• Online Access: https://cris.vtt.fi/en/publications/cbd3fb48-4060-4964-a8e3-acb59fb08e96; https://publications.vtt.fi/pdf/tiedotteet/2009/T2470.pdf

The future electricity demand and demand trends in Finland and in the Nordic countries (excluding Iceland) are the main focus of this report. The electricity demand per capita is high on a European and even on a global scale in Finland, Sweden and Norway. One reason is the high share of electric heating combined with a cold climate; another reason is the relatively low price level of electricity which has led to extensive electricity intensive industry. The estimated Nordic business as usual (BAU) demand for year 2020 is 435 TWh and for year 2030 454 TWh. EU's recent policy decisions regarding increased use of renewables, greenhouse gas emission reductions and improved energy efficiency will have an impact on the electricity system. The basic demand is expected to decrease compared to the BAU scenario. The future trends do not only affect annual consumption, but also the load curves and system peak load behaviours. Using consumer type load models and sectorwise annual energy estimates, we model the Nordic load curves for each country for the years 2020 and 2030. EU 20-20-20 policies will change how electricity is used. The authors of this report see industrial electricity demand, electric heating and heat pumps, and electric vehicles as the most important individual factors that may affect electricity demand in the future, and even increase it considerably. The impacts of large scale penetration of the latter two are further analysed with special regard to effect on system peak load. The analysis was done using what-if cases. The future of oil heating is under the spotlight especially in Finland according to the long-term climate and energy strategy of the Ministry of Employment and the Economy. If 200 000 of the oil heated detached houses are converted to heat pumps, then the electricity consumption would rise with more than 2 TWh. At the same time the peak load will rise with 1100 MW. On the other hand, if a similar chunk of direct electric heated houses get heat pumps, it will more than compensate for the ...