Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer
Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists o...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2022
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Online Access: | https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387646.pdf |
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ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:362055 2023-06-11T04:08:10+02:00 Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer Docquier, D. Vannitsem, S. Ragone, F. Wyser, K. Liang, X.S. 2022 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387646.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000796322100001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387646.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3EGeophys.+Res.+Lett.+49%289%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+e2021GL095892.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1029%2F2021GL095892%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1029%2F2021GL095892%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892 2023-05-03T22:25:54Z Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply for the first time the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 49 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) |
op_collection_id |
ftvliz |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble. This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply for the first time the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Docquier, D. Vannitsem, S. Ragone, F. Wyser, K. Liang, X.S. |
spellingShingle |
Docquier, D. Vannitsem, S. Ragone, F. Wyser, K. Liang, X.S. Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
author_facet |
Docquier, D. Vannitsem, S. Ragone, F. Wyser, K. Liang, X.S. |
author_sort |
Docquier, D. |
title |
Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
title_short |
Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
title_full |
Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
title_fullStr |
Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
title_full_unstemmed |
Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
title_sort |
causal links between arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387646.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
%3Ci%3EGeophys.+Res.+Lett.+49%289%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+e2021GL095892.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1029%2F2021GL095892%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1029%2F2021GL095892%3C%2Fa%3E |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000796322100001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387646.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1768381303415111680 |