Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets
Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surfac...
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ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:361566 2023-05-15T13:42:51+02:00 Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets Carter, J. Leeson, A. Orr, A. Kittel, C. van Wessem, J.M. 2022 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387119.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000857077000001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387119.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3ECryosphere+16%289%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+3815-3841.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-16-3815-2022%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-16-3815-2022%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022 2023-03-01T23:26:01Z Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Antarctic The Cryosphere 16 9 3815 3841 |
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Open Polar |
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Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) |
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ftvliz |
language |
English |
description |
Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carter, J. Leeson, A. Orr, A. Kittel, C. van Wessem, J.M. |
spellingShingle |
Carter, J. Leeson, A. Orr, A. Kittel, C. van Wessem, J.M. Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
author_facet |
Carter, J. Leeson, A. Orr, A. Kittel, C. van Wessem, J.M. |
author_sort |
Carter, J. |
title |
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
title_short |
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
title_full |
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
title_fullStr |
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Variability in Antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
title_sort |
variability in antarctic surface climatology across regional climate models and reanalysis datasets |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387119.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
op_source |
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op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000857077000001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/387119.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3815-2022 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3815 |
op_container_end_page |
3841 |
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1766173521153622016 |