Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3
A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate chang...
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2021
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Online Access: | https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/378800.pdf |
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ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:353426 2023-05-15T14:41:20+02:00 Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 Tian, T. Yang, S. Karami, M.P. Massonnet, F. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, T. 2021 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/378800.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000672228600001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/378800.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3EGeosci.+Model+Dev.+14%287%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+4283-4305.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Fgmd-14-4283-2021%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Fgmd-14-4283-2021%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2021 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 2022-07-06T22:23:50Z A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Pacific Norway Geoscientific Model Development 14 7 4283 4305 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) |
op_collection_id |
ftvliz |
language |
English |
description |
A substantial part of Arctic climate predictability at interannual timescales stems from the knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. Among all sea ice properties, its volume, which is a product of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT), is the most responsive parameter to climate change. However, the majority of climate prediction systems are only assimilating the observed SIC due to lack of long-term reliable global observation of SIT. In this study, the EC-Earth3 Climate Prediction System with anomaly initialization to ocean, SIC and SIT states is developed. In order to evaluate the regional benefits of specific initialized variables, three sets of retrospective ensemble prediction experiments are performed with different initialization strategies: ocean only; ocean plus SIC; and ocean plus SIC and SIT initialization. In the Atlantic Arctic, the Greenland–Iceland–Norway (GIN) and Barents seas are the two most skilful regions in SIC prediction for up to 5–6 lead years with ocean initialization; there are re-emerging skills for SIC in the Barents and Kara seas in lead years 7–9 coinciding with improved skills of sea surface temperature (SST), reflecting the impact of SIC initialization on ocean–atmosphere interactions for interannual-to-decadal timescales. For the year 2–9 average, the region with significant skill for SIT is confined to the central Arctic Ocean, covered by multi-year sea ice (CAO-MYI). Winter preconditioning with SIT initialization increases the skill for September SIC in the eastern Arctic (e.g. Kara, Laptev and East Siberian seas) and in turn improve the skill of air surface temperature locally and further expanded over land. SIT initialization outperforms the other initialization methods in improving SIT prediction in the Pacific Arctic (e.g. East Siberian and Beaufort seas) in the first few lead years. Our results suggest that as the climate warming continues and the central Arctic Ocean might become seasonal ice free in the future, the controlling mechanism for decadal ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tian, T. Yang, S. Karami, M.P. Massonnet, F. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, T. |
spellingShingle |
Tian, T. Yang, S. Karami, M.P. Massonnet, F. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, T. Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
author_facet |
Tian, T. Yang, S. Karami, M.P. Massonnet, F. Kruschke, T. Koenigk, T. |
author_sort |
Tian, T. |
title |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_short |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_fullStr |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the Arctic in EC-Earth3 |
title_sort |
benefits of sea ice initialization for the interannual-to-decadal climate prediction skill in the arctic in ec-earth3 |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/378800.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Pacific Norway |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Greenland Pacific Norway |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic Climate change Greenland Iceland Kara-Laptev laptev Pacific Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000672228600001 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/378800.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4283-2021 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
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14 |
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7 |
container_start_page |
4283 |
op_container_end_page |
4305 |
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1766313125397659648 |