Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensui...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/313944.pdf |
id |
ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:295637 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:295637 2023-05-15T16:27:17+02:00 Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability Defrance, D. Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A.M. Sultan, B. Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J.-P. 2017 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/313944.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000403687300037 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/313944.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3EProc.+Natl.+Acad.+Sci.+U.S.A.+114%2825%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+6533-6538.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1619358114%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1619358114%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2017 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 2022-05-01T10:59:59Z The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Greenland Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114 25 6533 6538 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) |
op_collection_id |
ftvliz |
language |
English |
description |
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Defrance, D. Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A.M. Sultan, B. Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J.-P. |
spellingShingle |
Defrance, D. Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A.M. Sultan, B. Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J.-P. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
author_facet |
Defrance, D. Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A.M. Sultan, B. Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J.-P. |
author_sort |
Defrance, D. |
title |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_short |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_fullStr |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_sort |
consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the sahelian population vulnerability |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/313944.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
%3Ci%3EProc.+Natl.+Acad.+Sci.+U.S.A.+114%2825%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+6533-6538.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1619358114%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1073%2Fpnas.1619358114%3C%2Fa%3E |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000403687300037 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/313944.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619358114 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
114 |
container_issue |
25 |
container_start_page |
6533 |
op_container_end_page |
6538 |
_version_ |
1766016418592063488 |