Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/292127.pdf |
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ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:257131 2023-05-15T13:23:53+02:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Cornford, S. Martin, D. Payne, A. Ng, E. Le Brocq, A. Gladstone, R. Edwards, T. Shannon, S. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. 2015 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/292127.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000360661700017 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/292127.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3ECryosphere+9%284%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+1579-1600.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-1579-2015%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-1579-2015%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2015 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 2022-05-01T10:39:38Z We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the El and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Amundsen Sea Antarctic Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) West Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere 9 4 1579 1600 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) |
op_collection_id |
ftvliz |
language |
English |
description |
We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the El and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornford, S. Martin, D. Payne, A. Ng, E. Le Brocq, A. Gladstone, R. Edwards, T. Shannon, S. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. |
spellingShingle |
Cornford, S. Martin, D. Payne, A. Ng, E. Le Brocq, A. Gladstone, R. Edwards, T. Shannon, S. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
author_facet |
Cornford, S. Martin, D. Payne, A. Ng, E. Le Brocq, A. Gladstone, R. Edwards, T. Shannon, S. Agosta, C. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, H. Krinner, G. Ligtenberg, S. Timmermann, R. Vaughan, D. |
author_sort |
Cornford, S. |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/292127.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Thwaites Glacier West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Thwaites Glacier |
op_source |
%3Ci%3ECryosphere+9%284%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+1579-1600.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-1579-2015%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-1579-2015%3C%2Fa%3E |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000360661700017 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/292127.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1579 |
op_container_end_page |
1600 |
_version_ |
1766376097890435072 |