Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance

The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapt...

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Published in:The Cryosphere
Main Authors: Agosta, C., Fettweis, X., Datta, R.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/291329.pdf
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spelling ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:257102 2023-05-15T13:54:11+02:00 Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance Agosta, C. Fettweis, X. Datta, R. 2015 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/291329.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000367523400019 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/291329.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3ECryosphere+9%286%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+2311-2321.+%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-2311-2015%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttps%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.5194%2Ftc-9-2311-2015%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2015 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015 2022-05-01T10:39:38Z The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979–2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850–1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic The Cryosphere 9 6 2311 2321
institution Open Polar
collection Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA)
op_collection_id ftvliz
language English
description The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet cannot be reliably deduced from global climate models (GCMs), both because their spatial resolution is insufficient and because their physics are not adapted for cold and snow-covered regions. By contrast, regional climate models (RCMs) adapted for polar regions can physically and dynamically downscale SMB components over the ice sheet using large-scale forcing at their boundaries. Polar-oriented RCMs require appropriate GCM fields for forcing because the response of the cryosphere to a warming climate is dependent on its initial state and is not linear with respect to temperature increase. In this context, we evaluate the current climate in 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data set over Antarctica by focusing on forcing fields which may have the greatest impact on SMB components simulated by RCMs. Our inter-comparison includes six reanalyses, among which ERA-Interim reanalysis is chosen as a reference over 1979–2014. Model efficiency is assessed taking into account the multi-decadal variability of the fields over the 1850–1980 period. We show that fewer than 10 CMIP5 models show reasonable biases compared to ERA-Interim, among which ACCESS1-3 is the most pertinent choice for forcing RCMs over Antarctica, followed by ACCESS1-0, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, NorESM1-M, CCSM4 and EC-EARTH. Finally, climate change over the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 is less sensitive to the global warming signal than it is to the present-day simulated sea-ice extent and to the feedback between sea-ice decrease and air temperature increase around Antarctica.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Agosta, C.
Fettweis, X.
Datta, R.
spellingShingle Agosta, C.
Fettweis, X.
Datta, R.
Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
author_facet Agosta, C.
Fettweis, X.
Datta, R.
author_sort Agosta, C.
title Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
title_short Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
title_full Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
title_fullStr Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of the CMIP5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the Antarctic surface mass balance
title_sort evaluation of the cmip5 models in the aim of regional modelling of the antarctic surface mass balance
publishDate 2015
url https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/291329.pdf
geographic Antarctic
Southern Ocean
The Antarctic
geographic_facet Antarctic
Southern Ocean
The Antarctic
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctica
Ice Sheet
Sea ice
Southern Ocean
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
Antarctica
Ice Sheet
Sea ice
Southern Ocean
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op_doi https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2311-2015
container_title The Cryosphere
container_volume 9
container_issue 6
container_start_page 2311
op_container_end_page 2321
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