Modelling of the climatic system and its response to human activities

• Main Authors: Berger, A., Campin, J.M., Deleersnijder, E., Mohajir, E.M., Fichefet, T., Foccoroulle, J.-F., Grenier, H., Morales Maqueda, M., Tulkens, P., van Ypersele, J.P.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: 1993
• Subjects: Climatic changes; Greenhouse gases; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.vliz.be/nl/open-marien-archief?module=ref&refid=23798

Only mathematical models are able to predict the climate change that will be induced over the next decades by the increase of the atmospheric concentration in greenhouse gases. To produce such forecasts it is necessary to work out a model of the Earth's climate system encompassing, at least, the atmosphere, the World Ocean and the sea ice. Such a model is being developed at ASTR. The AGCM of the LMD has been installed at ASTR. This model is briefly described and the first results obtained at ASTR are presented. The sea ice model is of thermodynamic-dynamic type. It is shown that the thermodynamic part, when coupled to a simple ocean model, is giving realistic results. It is believed that an excellent representation of the sea ice cover will be obtained after completing the validation of the thermodynamic part. The free surface OGCM is briefly described. The model has been successfully tested in a robust diagnostic mode, which means that the main features of the oceanic general circulation are well represented. A first simulation without restoring terms was preformed, giving very encouraging results.