Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM

Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas con...

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Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Goelzer, H., Huybrechts, P., Raper, S.C.B., Loutre, M.-F., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/244252.pdf
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spelling ftvliz:oai:oma.vliz.be:223746 2023-05-15T13:33:16+02:00 Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM Goelzer, H. Huybrechts, P. Raper, S.C.B. Loutre, M.-F. Goosse, H. Fichefet, T. 2012 application/pdf https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/244252.pdf en eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/000312696400054 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/oi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045401 https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/244252.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess %3Ci%3EEnviron.+Res.+Lett.+7%284%29%3C%2Fi%3E%3A+045401.+%3Ca+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1088%2F1748-9326%2F7%2F4%2F045401%22+target%3D%22_blank%22%3Ehttp%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.1088%2F1748-9326%2F7%2F4%2F045401%3C%2Fa%3E info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2012 ftvliz https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045401 2022-05-01T13:34:09Z Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA) Antarctic Greenland Environmental Research Letters 7 4 045401
institution Open Polar
collection Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ): Open Marine Archive (OMA)
op_collection_id ftvliz
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description Sea-level is expected to rise for a long time to come, even after stabilization of human-induced climatic warming. Here we use simulations with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to project sea-level changes over the third millennium forced with atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that stabilize by either 2000 or 2100 AD. The model includes 3D thermomechanical models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model, a global glacier melt algorithm to account for the response of mountain glaciers and ice caps, and a procedure for assessing oceanic thermal expansion from oceanic heat uptake. Four climate change scenarios are considered to determine sea-level commitments. These assume a 21st century increase in greenhouse gases according to SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2 with a stabilization of the atmospheric composition after the year 2100. One additional scenario assumes 1000 years of constant atmospheric composition from the year 2000 onwards. For our preferred model version, we find an already committed total sea-level rise of 1.1 m by 3000 AD. In experiments with greenhouse gas concentration stabilization at 2100 AD, the total sea-level rise ranges between 2.1 m (B1), 4.1 m (A1B) and 6.8 m (A2). In all scenarios, more than half of this amount arises from the Greenland ice sheet, thermal expansion is the second largest contributor, and the contribution of glaciers and ice caps is small as it is limited by the available ice volume of maximally 25 cm of sea-level equivalent. Additionally, we analysed the sensitivity of the sea-level contributions from an ensemble of nine different model versions that cover a large range of climate sensitivity realized by model parameter variations of the atmosphere–ocean model. Selected temperature indices are found to be good predictors for sea-level contributions from the different components of land ice and oceanic thermal expansion after 1000 years.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Goelzer, H.
Huybrechts, P.
Raper, S.C.B.
Loutre, M.-F.
Goosse, H.
Fichefet, T.
spellingShingle Goelzer, H.
Huybrechts, P.
Raper, S.C.B.
Loutre, M.-F.
Goosse, H.
Fichefet, T.
Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
author_facet Goelzer, H.
Huybrechts, P.
Raper, S.C.B.
Loutre, M.-F.
Goosse, H.
Fichefet, T.
author_sort Goelzer, H.
title Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
title_short Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
title_full Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
title_fullStr Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
title_full_unstemmed Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM
title_sort millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the earth system model of intermediate complexity loveclim
publishDate 2012
url https://www.vliz.be/imisdocs/publications/244252.pdf
geographic Antarctic
Greenland
geographic_facet Antarctic
Greenland
genre Antarc*
Antarctic
glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctic
glacier
Greenland
Ice Sheet
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container_title Environmental Research Letters
container_volume 7
container_issue 4
container_start_page 045401
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