Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 /
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time o...
Published in: | Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management |
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ftvilniusuniv:oai:vu.lt:elaba:115010491 2024-09-15T18:23:29+00:00 Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / Bukantis, Arūnas, Valaika, Gytis 2021 application/pdf https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAPDB115010491&prefLang=en_US eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://epublications.vu.lt/object/elaba:115010491/115010491.pdf https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAPDB115010491&prefLang=en_US info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Journal of environmental engineering and landscape management., Vilnius : Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021, vol. 29, no. 3, p. 337-345. ISSN 1648-6897 eISSN 1822-4199 air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftvilniusuniv https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 2024-06-24T14:25:01Z The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Vilnius University Virtual Library (VU VL) Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management 29 3 337 345 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Vilnius University Virtual Library (VU VL) |
op_collection_id |
ftvilniusuniv |
language |
English |
topic |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts |
spellingShingle |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Bukantis, Arūnas, Valaika, Gytis Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
topic_facet |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts |
description |
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bukantis, Arūnas, Valaika, Gytis |
author_facet |
Bukantis, Arūnas, Valaika, Gytis |
author_sort |
Bukantis, Arūnas, |
title |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
title_short |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
title_full |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
title_fullStr |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA'S climate forecast system version 2 / |
title_sort |
accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of lithuania using noaa's climate forecast system version 2 / |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAPDB115010491&prefLang=en_US |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of environmental engineering and landscape management., Vilnius : Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021, vol. 29, no. 3, p. 337-345. ISSN 1648-6897 eISSN 1822-4199 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 https://epublications.vu.lt/object/elaba:115010491/115010491.pdf https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAPDB115010491&prefLang=en_US |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 |
container_title |
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
337 |
op_container_end_page |
345 |
_version_ |
1810463698907561984 |