Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time o...
Published in: | Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management |
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ftvilniusgtuojs:oai:journals.vgtu.lt:article/15580 2023-05-15T15:05:56+02:00 Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 Bukantis, Arūnas Valaika, Gytis 2021-10-25 application/pdf http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 eng eng Vilnius Tech Press Technika http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580/10786 http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 doi:10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 Copyright (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management; Vol 29 No 3 (2021); 337-345 1822-4199 1648-6897 air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Peer-reviewed Article 2021 ftvilniusgtuojs https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 2021-11-18T00:07:41Z The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation VGTU Journals (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University - Vilnius Tech) Arctic Hess ENVELOPE(-65.133,-65.133,-67.200,-67.200) Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management 29 3 337 345 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
VGTU Journals (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University - Vilnius Tech) |
op_collection_id |
ftvilniusgtuojs |
language |
English |
topic |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts |
spellingShingle |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts Bukantis, Arūnas Valaika, Gytis Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
topic_facet |
air temperature atmospheric circulation climate forecast system environment monitoring precipitations anomalies accuracy of forecasts |
description |
The objective of this paper is to assess the accuracy of air temperature and precipitation monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using the NOAA’s Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) and to determine the atmospheric circulation conditions present at the time of initialization of the respective forecasts. The air temperature and precipitation data are obtained from three-month mean and monthly mean spatial anomalies during the period between 2012 and 2019. The accuracy of forecasts was performed in accordance with three criteria: range, state and the absolute error of the respective predicted anomaly. The study has shown that forecasts initialized 0–20 days in advance of the target month or season tend to be the most skilful. The accuracy of CFSv2 forecasts may be significantly impacted by the initial atmospheric circulation conditions present during the generation thereof. The study determined which phases of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and which circulation types according to the Hess-Brezowsky classification are favourable/unfavourable for the monthly and seasonal forecasting of air temperature and precipitation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bukantis, Arūnas Valaika, Gytis |
author_facet |
Bukantis, Arūnas Valaika, Gytis |
author_sort |
Bukantis, Arūnas |
title |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_short |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_full |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_fullStr |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of Lithuania using NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 |
title_sort |
accuracy of monthly and seasonal forecasts generated for the territory of lithuania using noaa’s climate forecast system version 2 |
publisher |
Vilnius Tech Press Technika |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-65.133,-65.133,-67.200,-67.200) |
geographic |
Arctic Hess |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Hess |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management; Vol 29 No 3 (2021); 337-345 1822-4199 1648-6897 |
op_relation |
http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580/10786 http://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JEELM/article/view/15580 doi:10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 |
op_rights |
Copyright (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Vilnius Gediminas Technical University. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3846/jeelm.2021.15580 |
container_title |
Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
337 |
op_container_end_page |
345 |
_version_ |
1766337625111658496 |