Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with chang...

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Published in:Climate
Main Authors: Dibike, Yonas, Eum, Hyung-Il, Coulibaly, Paulin, Hartmann, Joshua
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Climate 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/1828/12226
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
id ftuvicpubl:oai:dspace.library.uvic.ca:1828/12226
record_format openpolar
spelling ftuvicpubl:oai:dspace.library.uvic.ca:1828/12226 2023-05-15T15:26:00+02:00 Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis Dibike, Yonas Eum, Hyung-Il Coulibaly, Paulin Hartmann, Joshua 2019 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1828/12226 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088 en eng Climate Dibike, Y., Eum, H., Coulibaly, P., & Hartmann, J. (2019). Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to the Statistical Methods of Analysis. Climate. 7(7), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088 http://hdl.handle.net/1828/12226 Athabasca River climate projection hydrologic modelling peak-flow return period stationary analysis non-stationary analysis Article 2019 ftuvicpubl https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088 2022-05-19T06:11:40Z Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability. This project was conducted in collaboration with the NSERC funded Canadian FloodNet project. The authors also acknowledge the contribution of Émilie Wong and Victoria Gagnon at the various stages of data acquisition and processing. This study was conducted with ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Athabasca River University of Victoria (Canada): UVicDSpace Athabasca River Canada Climate 7 7 88
institution Open Polar
collection University of Victoria (Canada): UVicDSpace
op_collection_id ftuvicpubl
language English
topic Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
spellingShingle Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
Dibike, Yonas
Eum, Hyung-Il
Coulibaly, Paulin
Hartmann, Joshua
Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
topic_facet Athabasca River
climate projection
hydrologic modelling
peak-flow
return period
stationary analysis
non-stationary analysis
description Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be a temperature-induced shift in precipitation from snowfall towards rain along with changes in precipitation intensity and snowmelt timing, resulting in alterations in the frequency and magnitude of peak flow events. This study examines the potential future changes in the frequency and severity of peak flow events in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada. The analysis is based on simulated flow data by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model driven by statistically downscaled climate change scenarios from the latest coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to an earlier period. The river flow is projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increase in peak flow, especially for low frequency events. Both stationary and non-stationary methods of peak flow analysis, performed at multiple points along the Athabasca River, show that projected changes in the 100-year peak flow event for the high emissions scenario by the 2080s range between 4% and 33% depending on the driving climate models and the statistical method of analysis. A closer examination of the results also reveals that the sensitivity of projected changes in peak flows to the statistical method of frequency analysis is relatively small compared to that resulting from inter-climate model variability. This project was conducted in collaboration with the NSERC funded Canadian FloodNet project. The authors also acknowledge the contribution of Émilie Wong and Victoria Gagnon at the various stages of data acquisition and processing. This study was conducted with ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Dibike, Yonas
Eum, Hyung-Il
Coulibaly, Paulin
Hartmann, Joshua
author_facet Dibike, Yonas
Eum, Hyung-Il
Coulibaly, Paulin
Hartmann, Joshua
author_sort Dibike, Yonas
title Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_short Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_full Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_fullStr Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_full_unstemmed Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis
title_sort projected changes in the frequency of peak flows along the athabasca river: sensitivity of results to statistical methods of analysis
publisher Climate
publishDate 2019
url http://hdl.handle.net/1828/12226
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
geographic Athabasca River
Canada
geographic_facet Athabasca River
Canada
genre Athabasca River
genre_facet Athabasca River
op_relation Dibike, Y., Eum, H., Coulibaly, P., & Hartmann, J. (2019). Projected Changes in the Frequency of Peak Flows along the Athabasca River: Sensitivity of Results to the Statistical Methods of Analysis. Climate. 7(7), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088.
https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
http://hdl.handle.net/1828/12226
op_doi https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070088
container_title Climate
container_volume 7
container_issue 7
container_start_page 88
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